==== Front Entropy (Basel) Entropy (Basel) entropy Entropy 1099-4300 MDPI 33287010 10.3390/e22111242 entropy-22-01242 Article Protein Conformational States—A First Principles Bayesian Method † https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5187-1768Rogers David M. National Center for Computational Sciences, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA; rogersdm@ornl.gov † This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan). 31 10 2020 11 2020 22 11 124208 10 2020 29 10 2020 © 2020 by the author.2020Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Automated identification of protein conformational states from simulation of an ensemble of structures is a hard problem because it requires teaching a computer to recognize shapes. We adapt the naïve Bayes classifier from the machine learning community for use on atom-to-atom pairwise contacts. The result is an unsupervised learning algorithm that samples a ‘distribution’ over potential classification schemes. We apply the classifier to a series of test structures and one real protein, showing that it identifies the conformational transition with >95% accuracy in most cases. A nontrivial feature of our adaptation is a new connection to information entropy that allows us to vary the level of structural detail without spoiling the categorization. This is confirmed by comparing results as the number of atoms and time-samples are varied over 1.5 orders of magnitude. Further, the method’s derivation from Bayesian analysis on the set of inter-atomic contacts makes it easy to understand and extend to more complex cases. Bernoulli mixtureBayesian clusteringunsupervised classification ==== Body 1. Introduction The conventional description of protein dynamics asserts that proteins posses intrinsic conformational states [1]. An enzyme may cycle between catalytic and open states [2]. An ion channel may open and close its central pore [3]. A chaperone protein assists transformation of large, hydrophobic proteins from initial, linear, to folded shapes [4]. X-ray and cryo electron-microscopy reveals conformations with small motions on the 1–5 Ångstrom level for those proteins that crystallize [5]. Neutron scattering and nuclear magnetic resonance structures of room temperature proteins show greater shape variability, but are usually able to classify structures into a few ‘canonical’ structures. Advances in molecular modeling have made it possible to simulate the protein folding process, generating very large numbers of samples, free energy landscapes, and information on kinetics. Nevertheless, computational identification of distinct conformational states from molecular simulations has remained an active area of methodological research. Approaches fall roughly into two classes—linear and nonlinear. Linear methods work with the real 3N-dimensional vector of atomic coordinates as a linear space, using pairwise alignments and Euclidean (RMSD) distances between structures. Nonlinear methods work with ‘features’ derived from nonlinear functions of the atomic coordinates—like pairwise distances between alpha-carbons. Well-known linear techniques include principle component analysis and linkage clustering based on pair-RMSDs. Nonlinear techniques include methods based on internal coordinates (relative distances and angles between groups of atoms) and T-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding [6]. Both linear and nonlinear techniques can be applied to subsets or groups of atoms to classify site-specific or inter-domain structures, respectively. This can be done trivially by handing off different point-sets to the analysis. Thus, most methods can be adapted to run with reasonable compute time and yield classifications most relevant to a motion under investigation. Automatically detecting protein secondary and tertiary structures, however, remains a challenging problem which we cannot address here. One of the principle methods developed for visualizing domain motions in proteins is DynDom [7,8]. DynDom works from two input structures and determines relative domain rotations (using internal coordinates). This allows predicting transition motions from experimentally observed conformers, but not conformations from observed motions. On the other hand, many structure-to-structure similarity classification methods have emerged for this problem [9,10,11]. A recent review of such dimensionality reduction methods for protein conformational spaces noted that nonlinear methods are generally better than Cartesian or linear ones, but that the complexity of assumptions behind those models makes them difficult to work with and adapt [6,12]. This work presents a complete inference method derived from one single statistical hypothesis: that conformational states are defined by sets of contacting residues. Specifically, we hypothesize that the conformational state, k, uniquely determines which pairs of residues u, v, will be touching. Like a weighted coin flip, the contact probability is μk,(u:v)—independently from all the other contacting pairs. Each conformational state is thus characterized by a vector, μk, encoding the set of contacting pairs in state k. The statistical model derived from this problem statement is termed a Bernoulli mixture model for binary feature classification [13]. The problem setup is similar to the Naive Bayes method [14]. However, because the categories are not known in advance, this is an unsupervised learning and classification problem. Bernoulli mixture models have been applied extensively in the field of text subject analysis [15], optical character recognition [14], and image feature classification [13]. Essentially all of these applications have been successful at building extremely accurate classification models. The latter work also presents a thorough summary of sampling methods. However, there remain difficulties sampling the distribution over categories, μ, especially when the number of categories and reference classifications are not known in advance. The well-known expectation-maximization algorithm (EM) [16] is available in principle, but is not a replacement for sampling. Theoretical work on the EM method [17] shows that redundant categories will result in many circumstances. In this work, we have introduced a prior that eliminates redundant categorizations. This work is structured as follows. Section 2 presents the underlying probability distribution of categories, then outlines a novel method for quickly sampling parameter space—achieving category inference. Full technical details are present in Appendix A.1 and Appendix A.2. Section 3 describes test problems on which the method is demonstrated. Section 4 presents results demonstrating that the method creates structurally meaningful categories with >90% accuracy. Although the potential application space is vast, this work focuses on proving method robustness using well-defined synthetic test problems. Each follows a time sequence mimicking domain motions in proteins—so that the classification accuracy can be judged by correctly assigning categories in time-order. For the practitioner interested in trying the method directly, full source code and scripts reproducing the test cases in this work are available under the GPLv3 license (Supplementary Materials or [18]). 2. Theory A naïve Bayes model (for bit-strings) assumes that structural input samples, i=1,…,N are generated by first selecting a conformational state, zi∈{1,…,K}, with probability πzi, and then independently deciding whether each point-to-point contact (xij,j=1,…,M), is made with probability μzij. If contact j is made in sample number i, then xij=1. The bit-vector, xi, is said to posess feature j. Otherwise xij=0, and the feature is absent. The model parameters are thus θ=(K,π,μ). It leads to a sampling distribution, (1)P(xz|θ)=∏iπzi∏j=1Fμzijxij(1−μzij)1−xij(2)=∏k=1KπkNk∏j=1MμkjNkj(1−μkj)Nk−Nkj. The second line above notes that, once the categorization, z, is known, the sampling distribution is easy to express in terms of feature counts in {i:zi=k}—the set of samples assigned to category k, (3) Nk=|{i:zi=k}|,Nkj=∑{i:zi=k}xij. The first is the number of samples in set k, and the second is the number of times each contact is seen in that set. According to Bayes’ theorem [19], we can turn this around to predict two important things—the probability that sample i belongs to category k, (read z given x and θ), (4) P(zi=k|xiθ)∝∏j=1Mμkjxij(1−μkj)1−xij, and also the probability distribution over all possible parameters, (5) P(θz|xI)=C(x)P(xz|θ)P(θ|I), where C(x) is an x-dependent normalization constant. Sampling this distribution provides everything—the categorizations, z, the conformational states, π,μ, and even a predicted number of categories, K. In Bayesian probability, a prior distribution has to be assumed by the researcher. The prior characterizes the parameter space, independently from any sampled data. Our prior distribution over parameters, introduced below, is P(θ|I). Since the parameters directly determine the sampling distribution, the prior does not affect it [P(xz|θ)=P(xz|θI)]. Note that this work juggles between two different priors, I and U, because the inference problem is simpler using P(θ|U), but P(θ|I) eliminates redundant solutions. We choose a prior probability, (6) P(θ|I)∝P(θ|U)∏k