
==== Front
bioRxiv
BIORXIV
bioRxiv
2692-8205
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

38076930
10.1101/2023.11.30.567148
preprint
5
Article
Identifying Impacts of Contact Tracing on Epidemiological Inference from Phylogenetic Data
Kupperman Michael D http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0340-488X

Ke Ruian http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5307-8934

Leitner Thomas
06 9 2024
2023.11.30.567148https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which allows reusers to copy and distribute the material in any medium or format in unadapted form only, for noncommercial purposes only, and only so long as attribution is given to the creator.
http://biorxiv.org/lookup/doi/10.1101/2023.11.30.567148
nihpp-2023.11.30.567148.pdf
Robust sampling methods are foundational to inferences using phylogenies. Yet the impact of using contact tracing, a type of non-uniform sampling used in public health applications such as infectious disease outbreak investigations, has not been investigated in the molecular epidemiology field. To understand how contact tracing influences a recovered phylogeny, we developed a new simulation tool called SEEPS (Sequence Evolution and Epidemiological Process Simulator) that allows for the simulation of contact tracing and the resulting transmission tree, pathogen phylogeny, and corresponding virus genetic sequences. Importantly, SEEPS takes within-host evolution into account when generating pathogen phylogenies and sequences from transmission histories. Using SEEPS, we demonstrate that contact tracing can significantly impact the structure of the resulting tree, as described by popular tree statistics. Contact tracing generates phylogenies that are less balanced than the underlying transmission process, less representative of the larger epidemiological process, and affects the internal/external branch length ratios that characterize specific epidemiological scenarios. We also examined real data from a 2007-2008 Swedish HIV-1 outbreak and the broader 1998-2010 European HIV-1 epidemic to highlight the differences in contact tracing and expected phylogenies. Aided by SEEPS, we show that the data collection of the Swedish outbreak was strongly influenced by contact tracing even after downsampling, while the broader European Union epidemic showed little evidence of universal contact tracing, agreeing with the known epidemiological information about sampling and spread. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including possible non-uniform sampling schemes when examining phylogenetic trees. For that, SEEPS serves as a useful tool to evaluate such impacts, thereby facilitating better phylogenetic inferences of the characteristics of a disease outbreak. SEEPS is available at github.com/MolEvolEpid/SEEPS.
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pmc
