
==== Front
Environ Evid
Environ Evid
Environmental Evidence
2047-2382
BioMed Central London

38799729
307
10.1186/s13750-023-00307-0
Systematic Map Protocol
Evidence of anticipatory forest use behaviours under policy introduction: a systematic map protocol
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6605-6539
Llopis Jorge Claudio j.llopis@bangor.ac.uk

123
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3902-2234
Haddaway Neal Robert 45
Omirbek Nurzhan 1
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1918-3463
Simmons Blake Alexander 6
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6171-263X
Garrett Rachael 7
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5199-3335
Jones Julia Patricia Gordon 1
1 https://ror.org/006jb1a24 grid.7362.0 0000 0001 1882 0937 School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, UK
2 https://ror.org/052gg0110 grid.4991.5 0000 0004 1936 8948 Interdisciplinary Centre for Conservation Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
3 https://ror.org/02k7v4d05 grid.5734.5 0000 0001 0726 5157 Centre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
4 https://ror.org/01ygyzs83 grid.433014.1 Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany
5 https://ror.org/04z6c2n17 grid.412988.e 0000 0001 0109 131X Africa Centre for Evidence, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
6 https://ror.org/019zjrs07 grid.468343.e 0000 0004 5906 1078 Tampa Bay Estuary Program, St. Petersburg, FL USA
7 https://ror.org/013meh722 grid.5335.0 0000 0001 2188 5934 Department of Geography and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
26 9 2023
26 9 2023
2023
12 2028 1 2023
15 7 2023
© The Author(s) 2023
2023
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
Background

Forest conservation is a major global policy goal, due to the role forests play in climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. It is well recognized that the introduction of policies, whether aimed at forest conservation or with other objectives, has the potential to trigger unintended outcomes, such as displacement or leakage, which can undermine policy objectives. However, a set of outcomes that has escaped detailed scrutiny are anticipatory forest use behaviours, emerging when forest stakeholders anticipate policy implementation, deploying for example pre-emptive forest clearing, resulting in detrimental environmental outcomes. Lack of understanding of the extent and sectorial scope of these behaviours prevents us from devising strategies to address their potential detrimental consequences.

Methods

This protocol presents the methodology that will be followed to conduct a systematic map to identify, compile, review and describe the evidence available on anticipatory forest use behaviours in the context of policy introduction around the world. We will use two complementary search strategies, which we have tested before submitting this protocol. First, a systematic bibliographic search, and second, a citation chase approach. We will include articles based on a pre-defined set of criteria defined according to a Population, Intervention and Outcome (i.e. PIO) design. To support identification of knowledge gaps and clusters, we will report results of the systematic map in a narrative synthesis, an evidence atlas and other visualisations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13750-023-00307-0.

Keywords

Forest conservation
Habitat conservation
Biodiversity
Area-based approaches
Climate change
Environmental policy
Human behaviour
Unintended outcomes
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001711 Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung P500PN_206846 Llopis Jorge Claudio issue-copyright-statement© Collaboration for Environmental Evidence and BioMed Central Ltd. 2023
==== Body
pmcBackground

Sound forest conservation policy is needed to tackle the combined challenges of climate change and biodiversity decline [8], for which standing forests play a key role [6, 54]. The forest conservation agenda is receiving attention at the highest level of international policy making; for example at the United Nations Climate Conference of Parties 26, leaders from 141 countries pledged to stop deforestation by 2030 [52]. However, the introduction of policy, whether aimed at forest conservation or other objectives, has the potential to trigger unexpected outcomes. In forest conservation approaches, such as the establishment of terrestrial protected areas, one of the best studied unexpected outcomes is displacement effects (also known as leakage), where avoided deforestation is spatially displaced elsewhere [43]. The implications of these unintended outcomes of forest conservation policy are well understood and considered by policy makers [5, 46]. However, a set of unintended outcomes of forest conservation policy introduction that has so far escaped detailed scrutiny is that of anticipatory behaviours, where forest edge residents, landholders or forest users change behaviour in advance of policy implementation.

Anticipatory behaviours are well-known in other policy contexts, and have been investigated extensively in the economics literature, for example in the case of taxation [1, 7] or health policy reform [3], or housing markets under urban development dynamics [27]. In the case of environmental policy introduction, anticipatory behaviours might result in what has been labelled in the climate policy sector the Green Paradox [49], where introduction of tighter regulation results in increasing pre-emptive extraction of fossil fuels [53], or a policy aimed at reducing pollution initially increases it [29]. In the context of biodiversity conservation, anticipatory behaviours have been demonstrated in the case of international wildlife trade, with traders anticipating species-wide trade bans by increasing commercial transactions of the species targeted before the ban is implemented [38, 45]. A comparable phenomenon has been observed in cases of marine reserve establishment [37], or the management of fishing quotas [26]: in both cases with fishers anticipating the implementation of the policy change by increasing their short-term fishing efforts.

Table 1 Examples of anticipatory forest use behaviours in contexts of terrestrial biodiversity conservation policy introduction, and in policies with the potential to affect forests (e.g. agricultural development and sustainable agricultural production)

Sector	Intervention	Study examples	Location	Anticipatory behaviour	
Terrestrial biodiversity conservation	Habitat conversion regulation	Stroup [50]	North Carolina, United States	Timber harvest rotation shortening	
List et al. [32]	Arizona, United States	Pre-emptive forest clearing	
Simmons et al. [48]	Queensland, Australia	Pre-emptive forest clearing	
Seghezzo et al. [47]	Salta,

Northern Argentina

	Pre-emptive forest clearing	
Terrestrial protected area establishment	Keller [30]

Llopis et al. [33]

	Northeastern Madagascar	Pre-emptive forest clearing	
Payment for Ecosystem Services scheme	Fiorini et al. [15]	Rio de Janeiro State, Southern Brazil	Forest regrowth suppression	
Agricultural development	Land registration program	Middleton [39]	Southern Madagascar	Pre-emptive forest clearing	
Grimsditch and Schoenberger [16]	Cambodia	Pre-emptive forest clearing	
Wren-Lewis et al. [56]	Benin	No anticipatory behaviours found	
Agrarian reform	Alston et al. [4]

Aldrich et al. [2]

	Pará,

Brazilian Amazon

	Pre-emptive forest clearing	
Sustainable agricultural production	Certification for sustainable production of palm oil	Carlson et al. [9]	Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia	Pre-emptive forest clearing	
References are selected from our initial article benchmark (Additional file 1)

In the context of introduction of policy directly aimed at forest conservation, several cases of anticipatory behaviours have been reported (Table 1) across biomes and country income levels (Fig. 1). A classic example is the case of the Endangered Species Act introduced in the United States in the 1970s and updated subsequently to include new species for habitat conservation. To avoid restrictive land use regulations, in several cases landowners pre-emptively destroyed an endangered species’ habitat within their property between the moment the species was listed for protection and the prohibition to damage its habitat was actually enforced  [32, 35, 57]. A comparable situation emerged in Queensland, Australia, with landholders ‘panic clearing’ native forests and woodlands in advance of the implementation of and amendments to vegetation management regulations restricting land clearing from the 1990s to the 2010s [44, 48]. In the case of area-based forest conservation interventions, such as establishment of terrestrial protected areas, a related phenomenon was reported in Northeastern Madagascar, with forest edge populations increasing their forest clearing efforts before the protected area was in place, in an attempt to secure agricultural land [30, 33]. Such pre-emptive forest clearing was also found in voluntary participation in sustainability certification of agricultural commodities production, such as palm oil, in Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia [9].

Policy changes that are not directly concerned with forest can also result in anticipatory behaviours negatively affecting forest cover or condition. For example, when a land registration initiative is being initiated, local populations might clear forest to access agricultural land in the expectation they will obtain a statutory recognition for that parcel, such as a title or certificate. This was found to have happened in the case of a nation-wide program in Cambodia [16], and likely also in Southern Madagascar [39], although land titling does not always result in such an effect [56].

These examples suggest that anticipatory forest use behaviours might be a common response to policy introduction, potentially undermining the intervention’s objectives. However, no systematic evidence synthesis has been conducted on the phenomenon. To fill in this knowledge gap, we will develop a systematic map to compile and synthesize the global evidence of the emergence of anticipatory forest use behaviours under policy introduction contexts detrimentally affecting forest cover or condition. Given that this is the first such evidence synthesis effort, a systematic map is the most appropriate approach because of uncertainty about the extent to which these behaviours have been studied and reported, as well as likely wide variation in the type and quality of the reports in the literature. Systematically mapping the evidence available on these behaviours might benefit environmental policy and management by providing an accessible and easy to consult repository of cases [18], helping increase decision-maker’s awareness of the risk of policies triggering such unintended behaviours, and may stimulate more formal study of the phenomenon. The evidence on anticipatory forest use behaviours under policy introduction already listed above has been compiled into an initial benchmark list (Fig. 1; Table 1, Additional file 1), which has helped to inform and test our search strategies (see below). This evidence was gathered by the authors over recent years, and expanded through a call for evidence from experts released by the first author on the social media network Twitter in April 2022.

Fig. 1 Location of initial benchmark articles (Additional file 1). For visualization purposes, location is provided approximately, see Additional file 2 for more information. Biome classification based on Dinerstein et al. [14]. Income level classification based on World Bank [55]

Objective of this systematic map

The objective of this systematic map is to assemble and map the current state of evidence describing anticipatory forest use behaviours as a result of policy introduction, focusing on behaviours that detrimentally affect forest cover or condition.

Primary question

The primary research question that will guide the systematic map is: What is the state of the evidence on anticipatory forest use behaviours in the context of policy introduction?

This question was defined by the reviewing team after consultation with relevant stakeholders consulted prior to submitting this protocol for review.

Elements of the primary question

This systematic map will follow a population-intervention-outcome (P.I.O) framework, with the question elements being the following.

Population

We focus on global forests as the population of interest. The global nature of this systematic map is justified on the basis of the evidence on anticipatory forest use behaviours gathered so far (Additional file 1), which have been found across country income levels and biomes (Fig. 1).

Intervention

The interventions of interest in this systematic map are the policies prompting anticipatory forest use behaviours that detrimentally affect forest cover or condition.

Outcome

The outcome of interest in this systematic map is the anticipatory forest use behaviour the policy intervention triggered, that would have been regulated by the intervention, and that detrimentally affects forest cover or condition.

Methods

This evidence synthesis will follow guidance on systematic maps [28, 41], and will conform with ROSES reporting standards [22] ﻿﻿﻿﻿(Additional file 3)﻿. This protocol has been compiled following the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence guidelines 8 [13].

Stakeholder engagement

Given the applied nature of this research, and the urgency to transfer the knowledge to relevant stakeholders, we will follow best practice guidance on stakeholder engagement [18]. We have identified a group of stakeholders with expertise in each of the broad policy areas we have found to trigger anticipatory forest use behaviour so far. Concretely, we are consulting with an expert on terrestrial protected areas establishment and management, an expert on land tenure specializing in land rights formalization processes, and an expert on sustainable agricultural production at the forest frontier. Expert is understood here as an individual with practical experience in development or implementation of environmental policy or an established researcher who has focused much of his or her scientific career on the intervention we are interested in. We have shared the protocol with these stakeholders in parallel to the review process in the Environmental Evidence journal, and their input was implemented at the same time that we addressed the reviewers’ comments on the protocol. The author team will also request comments about the clarity of the final report from these stakeholders once the synthesis is conducted.

Our review team is also highly interdisciplinary with links to relevant areas of policy. We have one specialist in global land use policy (RG), an expert on protected areas (JPGJ), and an expert on pre-emptive forest clearing behaviours (BAS), as well as an expert on evidence syntheses (NRH).

Searches

Search strategy

For this systematic map we will follow two complementary search strategies: a bibliographic search, and a citation chasing strategy.

Strategy A—bibliographic search

We will conduct a comprehensive bibliographic search through four bibliographic and two dissertation platforms (Table 2), one search engine (Google Scholar) and 67 organisational websites (Additional file 4). We have developed a search string (Table 3) based on the terms employed by the initial benchmark articles to describe anticipatory forest use behaviours, including relevant synonyms to those terms, as well as extracting terms used to describe forest ecosystems in other systematic map protocols (e.g. [11]). We have included in the search string the population element of the research question (e.g. forest, woodlands, etc.), as well as the outcome element, separated into the forest use behaviour undertaken (e.g. deforestation, clearing, expansion, etc.) and terms which seek to capture the anticipatory character of the behaviour (e.g. pre-emptive, anticipatory, unprecedented, etc.). We have not included the intervention element given that, after testing different search string including it (Additional file 5), we realised that its inclusion produced a heavily inefficient string that resulted in insufficient specificity, thus returning a large number of results not relevant to the research question. The search string was tested and refined as explained in Additional file 5, to keep a balance between sensitivity and retrieving a manageable amount of articles. On a scoping search we conducted on 19/06/2023 in Web of Science Core Collection and Scopus on title, abstract and keywords (respectively TOPIC and TITLE-ABS-KEY), our search string returned 7407 and 9695 results respectively.

We will search in the bibliographic databases presented in Table 2. Some collections contained on certain platforms do not allow exporting results, so we will exclude those databases for our search. For the dissertation databases, we will restrict the search to items for which full text is available in the respective databases. For searching Google Scholar we will adapt the search string, and use the “Publish or Perish” [25] tool, including the first 300 results as recommended when using Google Scholar for this task [19].

Table 2 Bibliographic and dissertation databases, and web-based search engine to be used

Type	Platforms*	Database	Web URL	
Bibliographic database	EBSCOhost	GreenFILE, Library, Information Science & Technology Abstracts, and MEDLINE	https://web.a.ebscohost.com	
ProQuest Core Databases	SciTech Premium Collection; Social Science Premium Collection	https://www.proquest.com	
Scopus	Scopus	https://www.scopus.com	
Web of Science core collection	SCI-EXPANDED; SSCI; AHCI; CPCI-S; CPCI-SSH; ESCI	https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/advanced-search	
Dissertation database	EBSCOhost	Open Dissertations	https://biblioboard.com/opendissertations	
ProQuest	Dissertations & Theses Global	https://www.proquest.com	
Web-based search engine	Google Scholar	Google Scholar	https://scholar.google.com	
*Searches will be conducted using subscriptions of Bangor University, UK

The 67 organisational websites selected (Additional file 4) were chosen based on the research team’s expertise, complemented by retrieving the list of organisational websites employed in other forest-related systematic map protocols [10]. Where the publications page does not provide an advanced search function, we will first use the search string for the population element (Table 3) and look into the first 50 records of each website. In the case of websites of forest-related organisations, we will instead use the string for the outcome element. Where the search options include searching by topics, only those most relevant to the objective of this systematic map will be searched into (e.g. forestry, rural livelihoods, etc.). We will not investigate scientific articles contained within organisational websites, as these will be captured by our search of bibliographic databases. Results from searching into organisational websites will be downloaded and merged with results from the bibliographic search when possible. In cases where downloading results in a .csv format is not possible, we will systematically download results using either the Grey Literature Search Recorder app (https://www.eshackathon.org/software/grey-lit-reporter.html), the greylitsearcher Shiny app [17], Publish and Perish [25], or the Data Miner Chrome extension (https://dataminer.io). If that is not possible in specific websites, we will screen the items online, and relevant results will be exported.

Table 3 List of search terms in English language, using Web of Science syntax

Substring	Search terms	
Population	(tree* OR *forest* OR woodland* OR “wood*-land” OR habitat* OR vegetation OR timber OR canopy OR mangrove* OR savanna* OR cerrado OR “caatinga”)	
	AND	
Outcome (forest use behaviour)	(deforest* OR clear* OR destruct* OR extracti* OR conversion OR convert* OR destroy* OR vanish* OR fell* OR cut* OR expansion OR expand* OR “land use change” OR “land-use change” OR “land cover change” OR “land-cover change” OR “land change” OR “land-change” OR replac* OR remov* OR harvest* OR logg* OR exploit* OR “land management”)	
	NEAR/10	
Outcome (character of behaviour)	(pre-empt* OR preempt* OR anticipat* OR prematur* OR contentious OR contended OR unprecedented OR panic OR exacerbat* OR accelerat* OR reinforc* OR rush* OR unplanned OR unpredict* OR unexpect* OR expectation* OR atypical* OR perverse* OR unintended OR spik* OR stimulat* OR preventive OR preventative OR paradox* OR undesir* OR violen* OR *incentiv* OR ambiguous)	

After screening results, the articles (see Article Screening section below), the articles found to be relevant will be merged with those in the initial benchmark list (Additional file 1), to elaborate an extended benchmark list, on which we will apply the citation chase approach (see below).

Strategy B—citation chasing

We will apply a citation chase strategy on the extended article benchmark produced from the bibliographic search. We will conduct both, backward citation chase (i.e. gathering the references cited by the benchmark articles), and forward citation chase (i.e. retrieving the articles citing those in the benchmark). When backward citation chasing on books (edited or otherwise), dissertations, and organisational reports, we will only explore references from the chapters or sections containing the information we are interested in (i.e. on anticipatory forest use behaviours). Second, we will remove results that are either newspaper articles, court hearings, government documents (e.g. including laws, decrees, official speeches, etc.), as well as results obviously not relevant to this study, such as references to datasets, methods, R packages, etc., and all results that are not in English language. Third, we will remove duplicates. And fourth, we will screen for relevance the remaining articles at title and abstract level (concurrently), and then proceed to full text screening those articles found relevant at title and abstract following the inclusion criteria listed below.

We tested the performance of the dedicated tool citationchaser [22], available as an R package and a Shiny app, on the initial article benchmark. For the backward citation chase we tested the performance of the citationchaser Shiny app against the same task conducted through Web of Science, Scopus and manually. Results (Additional file 6) indicate that citationchaser performed worse (it got fewer references from each benchmark article) than Web of Science or Scopus, while Scopus yielded nearly identical results to manually extracting the references. For the forward citation chase, we compared the performance of the citationchaser Shiny app in finding the articles citing those in the benchmark against the same task in Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar. We found that citationchaser performed better (it found more citations for the benchmark articles) than either Web of Science or Scopus, but worse than Google Scholar.

Based on these tests, we will therefore use Scopus for backward citation chasing; manually extracting references from those articles in the extended benchmark that are not found in that database (mostly those without a DOI), and those for which Scopus yielded fewer references than we manually counted in the benchmark article. For forward citation chase, we will use the citationchaser Shiny app, resorting to Scopus in the case citationchaser cannot find any citation for the specific article, and using as last option Google Scholar, which seems the appropriate sequence based on more in-depth tests conducted on using Google Scholar to obtain citations [36].

Estimating comprehensiveness of the search

To check how comprehensive our overall search approach is, we have tested the strength of the combined two search strategies at finding the articles in the initial benchmark (Fig. 2). The numbers presented are based on the search string test (Strategy A and Additional file 5) and the citation chase test (Strategy B and Additional file 6).

Fig. 2 Comprehensiveness diagram showing the strength of each search strategy and their complementarity in finding the articles in the initial benchmark (Additional file 1)

Citation chase is the strongest search strategy, finding 17 out of the 24 articles in the initial benchmark (Fig. 2). The bibliographic search managed to capture 12 benchmark articles. Together, the combined strategies captured 20 articles (83%). Of the benchmark articles that we could not detect, two were an organisational report [16], and a relatively old conference proceeding [51], both without a DOI and not indexed in any bibliographic dataset. The remaining two were Seghezzo et al. [47] and Milne [40] but which did not mention anticipatory forest use behaviours in title or abstract. We recognised that the search strategy is not perfect, although after extensive testing we believe our approach is as good as possible with the resources available.

Article screening and study inclusion criteria

Screening strategy

We will retrieve title, abstract and all other information for all articles sought through search strategies A and B, import them into a reference manager software (i.e. Zotero or EndNote), and deduplicate results. Where different versions of the same article are found (e.g. a pre-print version and a definitive published version), we will keep the published version. Unique records will be then imported to an open access online tool designed for the management of systematic reviews and maps, either Rayyan [42] or CADIMA [31]. After the consistency check (see below), screening articles will be performed by at least two members of the review team independently, with the full dataset of records distributed among the reviewers.

Consistency checking

Checking consistency will be conducted across the screening process at both stages, i.e. title/abstract and full text. A random subset of 10% of the articles to be screened will be screened concurrently at title and abstract by all reviewers. We will then calculate the Cohen’s Kappa score [12], identify and discuss the reasons for disagreement article by article, and clarify the inclusion criteria. In the case the Kappa score does not reach a minimum of 0.6 in this first consistency check (indicating lack of consistency among reviewers), another 10% of articles will be then screened by all reviewers, and disagreements discussed. We will then calculate the corresponding Kappa score, again aiming at having a minimum of 0.6 to proceed to the next stage. In the case agreement between reviewers is still not achieved at this stage, we will repeat the procedure and check for consistency until agreement is reached. Once we have reached agreement among reviewers at the title/abstract screening stage, we will proceed to full text screening, conducting a similar consistency check.

Inclusion criteria

We will decide whether to include screened articles in the systematic map according to clear inclusion criteria. First we will check whether the article focuses on the appropriate Population, Intervention and Outcomes (see below for expanded definitions). When screening at title/abstract level for inclusion to full text screening, we will tend towards inclusion where there is uncertainty, given that in many occasions, the articles found reporting on anticipatory forest use behaviours at full text do not do so on title or abstract. Only articles in English will be included, given resource constraints. We do not have a date range criterion for inclusion of articles, given that this is the first evidence synthesis conducted on anticipatory forest use behaviours.

Relevant population(s)

The study mentions forest ecosystems or related concepts. Articles in the initial benchmark refer to forests in varied ways including ‘native vegetation’, ‘woodland’, or ‘habitat’ (see search string in Table 3). Given that most articles in the initial benchmark (Additional File 1) do not provide a definition of forest, providing such a definition is not an inclusion criterion. We will nonetheless compile definitions of forests from included articles whenever they are provided, and present them in the final systematic map report. We will not restrict inclusion by forest biome or country, given that the initial benchmark includes studies from a wide range of biomes and countries. However, included studies need to mention the place where the behaviour emerged, at least at the national level.

Relevant intervention(s)

The study mentions the policy that triggered the anticipatory forest use behaviour. We will include studies that provide evidence on any of the policies already found to encourage anticipatory behaviours, either with direct forest conservation objectives or otherwise (See initial article benchmark in Additional file 1), and also any other policy not yet captured in the benchmark articles. Given that we found anticipatory behaviours triggered by a wide range of policies (Table 1), and that the articles compiled in the initial benchmark (Additional file 1) are unlikely to capture the entire range of possible interventions triggering such behaviours, we do not define a priori the potential interventions. Policy in this systematic map is understood in a broad sense, including implementation of new laws, regulations or guidance, and changes or updates to existing policy. The policies of interest include global, national or sub-national policy instruments with a broad sectorial scope, including those with conservation objectives (e.g. establishment of terrestrial protected areas, species conservation regulations, REDD + projects), and those which might indirectly influence forest dynamics (e.g. land registration programs, agrarian reform processes, sustainability certification of agricultural commodities).

We refer to policy introduction as the entire process of policy development, including policy design, political discussions preceding implementation, announcement of the policy and actual implementation. We understand policy implementation as the cut-off date when the policy took effect, such as when a protected area was established, or a policy enacted.

To be included in the systematic map, the study needs to provide information about the date when the policy (or policy change) was implemented, or at least when the policy was or is expected to be implemented in the case it is not yet in place. We will also include studies where anticipatory behaviours were found to emerge in the case of policies that were planned but eventually were not implemented.

Relevant outcome(s)

The study describes anticipatory forest use behaviours, regardless of whether the term ‘anticipatory’ is used or not. The key inclusion criteria is that the study suggests anticipation of the policy as a likely explanation for the emergence of changes in land use which detrimentally affect forest cover or condition. These can include among others anticipatory behaviours that involve increases in the following forest cover dynamics: reduction of forest cover (e.g. clearing of forest for conversion to agriculture or other land use, clear cutting of timber), reduction of forest condition (e.g. selective logging, charcoal production) or others not yet identified in our benchmark.

Given that this is the first evidence synthesis on such type of complex behaviours, we will lean towards inclusion of all types of evidence on them. We will include articles where anticipatory forest use behaviours were explicitly expected to be emerge, but could not be detected (e.g. [56]), articles that provide anecdotal evidence on the behaviours, even if the article did not have them as the main focus of study (e.g. [30]), and articles where, the authors argue that they might be emerging and provide plausible mechanisms (e.g. [39]).

Relevant study design(s)

No study design types will be excluded during the screening stages. We will only include studies providing new evidence, and not those articles referring to secondary evidence (e.g. referring to other studies’ evidence). Exceptions to this rule will be made in the cases that the article screened reports evidence found in a type of source we are not screening, such as articles in languages others than English, government reports, books or newspaper articles. We will include articles where the primary data was collected elsewhere, but has not yet been reported.

Reasons for exclusion

We will include in the final systematic map report a list with the studies excluded after full text screening, with the reasons for exclusion for each of them. Each study must meet all the inclusion criteria presented above to be considered relevant for this systematic map. We will thus exclude articles that do not provide information on each of our research question’s elements, i.e. they do not focus on forests (population) and on forest cover change (outcome-forest use behaviour), do not mention policy introduction (intervention), or do not mention anticipation (outcome-character of the behaviour). We will also exclude articles in languages other than English, as well as review articles, unless the evidence reported there is not available elsewhere.

Data coding and extraction strategy

Data coding and extraction will be done to a large extent by the corresponding author (between 30% and 50% of the total included studies), as done in other systematic maps [34], who will then harmonize the way the data is extracted by the rest of the review team. For each included study, we will extract information on the variables presented in Table 4. One article can describe several studies, e.g. if the article is dealing with distinct locations, policy interventions or time periods. Where an article provides sufficient information to disaggregate into separate studies, we will extract and code information for studies separately. Also, several articles can refer to the same study, e.g. same location, policy and time period. In that case, and whenever the evidence provided is first hand, we will include all articles referring to the same study, classifying the study as a unique one, to make sure there are not duplicated studies in the final map. The metadata form has been tested on the 24 articles in the initial benchmark (Additional file 2).

Table 4 List of variables to code from the studies

Topic	Coding variable	Variable description	
Bibliographic information	ID_article	Unique ID of the article	
	ID_study	Unique ID of the study	
	Study_short_title	Short string title for study	
	Authors	List of authors	
	Article_title	Article title	
	Year	Article publication year	
	Keywords	Article keywords as provided by authors	
	Journal_publisher	Journal where the peer-reviewed article was published, book and publishing company where the book chapter appeared, organisation that published the report or working paper, or university where the dissertation’s degree was obtained.	
	Document_type	Type of document: peer-reviewed article (e.g. commentary, opinion, full research, editorial, etc.), book chapter, dissertation (e.g. PhD, MSc, etc.), organisational report, conference proceedings, etc.	
	DOI	Document DOI	
Study location	Country	Country or region	
	Locality	Site name describing the locality	
	Scale	Geographical scale of the study, e.g.:

i. Local

ii. Subnational

iii. National

iv. International (e.g. more than one country)

	
	Biome	Biome where the study is located	
	Latitude	Geographic latitude in decimal degrees	
	Longitude	Geographic longitude in decimal degrees	
	Coordinates_source	Source of latitude and longitude coordinates, e.g.:

i. Provided by study

ii. Imputed by reviewer (based on location on map, or location name)

	
	Coordinates_comment	Comment on how coordinates were imputed	
Evidence type and methods	Evidence_type	Type of evidence the study provides:

i. Empirical, quantitative

ii. Empirical, qualitative

iii. Theoretical

iv. Suggestion anticipatory behaviours might occur, with explanation of mechanisms

v. Reference to sources not screened in this systematic map (e.g. government reports, newspaper articles, documents in languages other than English, etc.)

	
	Secondary_evidence_source	Bibliographic details of source if evidence reported is contained in a source not screened in this systematic map	
	Study_type	Study design type, or general approach of the study, e.g.:

i. Quantitative impact evaluation

ii. Ethnography

iii. Policy impact analysis

iv. Policy overview

v. Historical overview

vi. Economic modelling

vii. Participatory mapping case study

viii. Land change science analysis

ix. Behavioural analysis

x. Political ecology analysis

xi. Randomized control trial policy impact evaluation

xii. Review of ecological consequences of forest clearing

xiii. Other

	
	Collection_methods	Data collection methods employed in the study, or source of data used in data analysis, e.g.:

i. Interviews

ii. Surveys

iii. Focus group discussions

iv. Satellite imagery processing

v. Annual satellite data products processing

vi. Cadastral coverage of properties

vii. Regional newspapers

viii. Policy documents

ix. Census data

x. Forest plot data

xi. Parcel specific data

xii. Certified plantations data

xiii. Spatially-explicit property data

xiv. Land conflict data

xv. Government documents

xvi. Participatory mapping workshops

xvii. Field walks

xviii. Timber market data

xix. Agricultural prices data

xx. Land clearing, deforestation or forest cover change data

xxi. Fire data

xxii. Case studies

xxiii. Other

	
	Analysis_methods	Data analysis methods employed in the study, e.g.:

i. Matching methods

ii. Panel methods

iii. Regression analysis

iv. Cadastral data analysis

v. Newspaper article review

vi. Behavioural modelling

vii. Predictive economic modelling

viii. Qualitative analysis

ix. Qualitative description

x. Descriptive presentation of quantitative data

xi. GIS data and satellite imagery analysis

xii. Legal analysis

xiii. Policy review

xiv. Institutional review

xv. Predictive theoretical analysis

xvi. Hierarchical cluster analysis

xvii. Principal component analysis

xviii. Bayesian structural modelling

xix. Statistical comparison of timber harvest rates

xx. Hypothesis formulation based on case study review

xxi. Theoretical framework elaboration

xxii. Based on own empirical analysis (for theoretical type of evidence)

xxiii. Other

	
Forest cover dynamics	Anticipatory_behaviour	Anticipatory behaviour reported as described by the authors	
	Behaviour_objective	The objective of the anticipatory behaviour reported, according to authors of the study, e.g.:

i. Subsistence agricultural expansion

ii. Commercial agricultural expansion

iii. Pasture expansion

iv. Mining expansion

v. Timber extraction / harvesting

vi. Timber plantation expansion

vii. Land development / urban expansion / settlement expansion

viii. Charcoal / firewood production

ix. Avoiding loss of entitlement to program

x. Other

xi. Not mentioned

	
	Post_policy_forest_dynamic	Post-policy implementation forest cover dynamic according to authors of the study, e.g.:

i. Increased forest loss

ii. Reduced forest loss

iii. Increased forest degradation

iv. Reduced forest degradation

v. No difference found

vi. Not mentioned

	
Policy context	Policy_type	The type of policy or policy tool that triggered the anticipatory behaviour, e.g.:

i. Habitat conservation

ii. Terrestrial protected area

iii. Trading restrictions

iv. Land registration programme

v. Certification of agricultural commodities

vi. Other

	
	Policy_name	Name of the policy that triggered the anticipatory behaviour	
	Policy_dynamic	Whether the policy implemented is new, an amendment, update, etc.:

i. New implementation

ii. Policy amendment

iii. Policy update

iv. Provision within policy

v. Conflict around existing policy

vi. Voluntary adoption of policy

vii. Other

	
	Policy_institution	Name of institution or organisation that introduced the policy	
	Actors	Stakeholders, actors, and/or forest users deploying the anticipatory behaviour, according to authors’ description	
Temporal dimension	Policy_year	When was the policy implemented (e.g. year)	
	Policy_duration	How long the policy was in place (e.g. years, still in place, etc.)	
	Behaviour_duration	How long the anticipatory behaviour lasted	
Forest characteristics	Forest_type	Forest type as stated by the authors	
Forest_definition	Forest definition provided in the article, in the case it is provided	
Link	Google_Scholar_link	Link to the article in Google Scholar	

Data synthesis and presentation

Narrative synthesis and presentation

We will summarize results through a narrative synthesis of the data provided by the included studies, supported by the following elements. We will present a ROSES flow diagram [21] detailing the systematic mapping process, including the number of articles obtained through each search strategy, those included and excluded at each screening stage, and the total number of relevant studies after full text level screening. We will provide a list of articles excluded after full text screening, with the reasons for exclusion. We will compute and present descriptive statistics on the distribution and trends of included studies. We will produce a world map presenting the location of the included studies, using the Shiny app EviAtlas [21], which allows to cluster points to aid visualization in the case the number of studies in a given region is too large. The world map will be provided in the final report of this systematic map and hosted online. Matrices or heatmaps presenting the number of studies for at least the following interactions between variables: type of intervention and anticipatory behaviour, country income level and anticipatory behaviour, and forest biome and anticipatory behaviour. In addition to the narrative report, world map, and accompanying figures and tables, we will upload the dataset online, with the possibility of filtering studies by for example, location, type of intervention, biome, or any other of the attributes extracted from the included studies (Table 4). The dataset will be free for users to download, which will be made available in a website we will create for this purpose, hosted in the first author’s GitHub account.

Knowledge gap and cluster identification strategy

We expect to be able to identify knowledge gaps on, for example, policy sectors, which might indicate where primary research is more urgently needed. Regarding knowledge clusters, given that this is the first evidence synthesis conducted on anticipatory forest use behaviours, we do not expect to be able to identify areas where the evidence base is large enough to be amenable to further, narrower systematic reviews. We will use all the knowledge gathered through this to elaborate hypotheses as of to why the evidence is more present or absent in certain regions or policies, and point to potential research and policy gaps accordingly.

Demonstrating procedural independence

No member of the review team will work on any articles authored by themselves, either at the screening or the data extraction stages.

Supplementary information

Additional file 1. Initial article benchmark.

Additional file 2. Data extraction test.

Additional file 3. ROSES form for systematic map protocol.

Additional file 4. List of organisational websites for grey literature searches.

Additional file 5. Search string tests.

Additional file 6. Results from citation chasing test.

Acknowledgements

The authors thank the comments from editor and three anonymous reviewers, as well as the feedback received from the three policy experts we requested help from. This study contributes to the Global Land Programme (https://glp.earth).

Author contributions

JCL, NRH, NO, BAS, RG, and JPGJ designed the protocol. JCL elaborated the protocol and tested the methods. NRH, NO, BAS, RG, and JPGJ contributed to writing the protocol. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Funding

JCL was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) through grant P500PN_206846. Publication of this work was also funded by the SNSF.

Availability of data and materials

All data generated or analysed during this study will be included in the published article and its supplementary information files.

Declarations

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
==== Refs
References

1. Ahmad N Xiao W End of double taxation: is the policy better when announced? J Policy Model 2013 35 6 928 42 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.12.004
Ahmad N, Xiao W. End of double taxation: is the policy better when announced? J Policy Model. 2013;35(6):928–42. 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.12.004.10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.12.004
2. Aldrich S Walker R Simmons C Caldas M Perz S Contentious land change in the amazon’s arc of deforestation Ann Assoc Am Geogr 2012 102 1 103 28 10.1080/00045608.2011.620501
Aldrich S, Walker R, Simmons C, Caldas M, Perz S. Contentious land change in the Amazon’s Arc of Deforestation. Ann Assoc Am Geogr. 2012;102(1):103–28. 10.1080/00045608.2011.620501.10.1080/00045608.2011.620501
3. Alpert A The anticipatory effects of medicare part D on drug utilization J Health Econ 2016 49 28 45 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.06.004 27372577
Alpert A. The anticipatory effects of Medicare Part D on drug utilization. J Health Econ. 2016;49:28–45. 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.06.004.27372577 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.06.004
4. Alston LJ Libecap GD Mueller B Land reform policies, the sources of violent conflict, and implications for deforestation in the brazilian amazon J Environ Econ Manag 2000 39 2 162 88 10.1006/jeem.1999.1103
Alston LJ, Libecap GD, Mueller B. Land Reform Policies, the sources of violent conflict, and implications for Deforestation in the brazilian Amazon. J Environ Econ Manag. 2000;39(2):162–88. 10.1006/jeem.1999.1103.10.1006/jeem.1999.1103
5. Barnes MD Glew L Wyborn C Craigie ID Prevent perverse outcomes from global protected area policy Nat Ecol Evol 2018 2 5 759 62 10.1038/s41559-018-0501-y 29556080
Barnes MD, Glew L, Wyborn C, Craigie ID. Prevent perverse outcomes from global protected area policy. Nat Ecol Evol. 2018;2(5):759–62. 10.1038/s41559-018-0501-y.29556080 10.1038/s41559-018-0501-y
6. Betts MG Wolf C Ripple WJ Phalan B Millers KA Duarte A Butchart SHM Levi T Global forest loss disproportionately erodes biodiversity in intact landscapes Nature 2017 547 7664 441 4 10.1038/nature23285 28723892
Betts MG, Wolf C, Ripple WJ, Phalan B, Millers KA, Duarte A, Butchart SHM, Levi T. Global forest loss disproportionately erodes biodiversity in intact landscapes. Nature. 2017;547(7664):441–4. 10.1038/nature23285.28723892 10.1038/nature23285
7. Bolster PJ Janjigian V Dividend policy and valuation effects of the tax reform act of 1986 Natl Tax J 1991 44 42 511 8 10.1086/ntj41788937
Bolster PJ, Janjigian V. Dividend policy and valuation effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1986. Natl Tax J. 1991;44(42):511–8. 10.1086/ntj41788937.10.1086/ntj41788937
8. Börner J Schulz D Wunder S Pfaff A The effectiveness of forest conservation policies and programs Annu Rev Resour Econ 2020 12 1 45 64 10.1146/annurev-resource-110119-025703
Börner J, Schulz D, Wunder S, Pfaff A. The effectiveness of forest conservation policies and programs. Annu Rev Resour Econ. 2020;12(1):45–64. 10.1146/annurev-resource-110119-025703.10.1146/annurev-resource-110119-025703
9. Carlson KM, Heilmayr R, Gibbs HK, Noojipady P, Burns DN, Morton DC, Walker NF, Paoli GD, Kremen C. Effect of oil palm sustainability certification on deforestation and fire in Indonesia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2018;115(1): 121–126. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1704728114.
10. Cheng SH Costedoat S Sterling EJ Chamberlain C Jagadish A Lichtenthal P Nowakowski AJ Taylor A Tinsman J Canty SWJ Holland MB Jones KW Mills M Morales-Hidalgo D Sprenkle-Hyppolite S Wiggins M Mascia MB Muñoz CL Brenes What evidence exists on the links between natural climate solutions and climate change mitigation outcomes in subtropical and tropical terrestrial regions? a systematic map protocol Environ Evid 2022 11 1 15 10.1186/s13750-022-00268-w 35465308
Cheng SH, Costedoat S, Sterling EJ, Chamberlain C, Jagadish A, Lichtenthal P, Nowakowski AJ, Taylor A, Tinsman J, Canty SWJ, Holland MB, Jones KW, Mills M, Morales-Hidalgo D, Sprenkle-Hyppolite S, Wiggins M, Mascia MB, Muñoz CL, Brenes. What evidence exists on the links between natural climate solutions and climate change mitigation outcomes in subtropical and tropical terrestrial regions? A systematic map protocol. Environ Evid. 2022;11(1):15. 10.1186/s13750-022-00268-w.35465308 10.1186/s13750-022-00268-w
11. Chiwona-Karltun L Kimanzu N Clendenning J Lodin JB Ellingson C Lidestav G Mkwambisi D Mwangi E Nhantumbo I Ochieng C Petrokofsky G Sartas M What is the evidence that gender affects access to and use of forest assets for food security? a systematic map protocol Environ Evid 2017 6 1 2 10.1186/s13750-016-0080-9
Chiwona-Karltun L, Kimanzu N, Clendenning J, Lodin JB, Ellingson C, Lidestav G, Mkwambisi D, Mwangi E, Nhantumbo I, Ochieng C, Petrokofsky G, Sartas M. What is the evidence that gender affects access to and use of forest assets for food security? A systematic map protocol. Environ Evid. 2017;6(1):2. 10.1186/s13750-016-0080-9.10.1186/s13750-016-0080-9
12. Cohen J A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales Educ Psychol Meas 1960 20 1 37 46 10.1177/001316446002000104
Cohen J. A coefficient of Agreement for Nominal Scales. Educ Psychol Meas. 1960;20(1):37–46. 10.1177/001316446002000104.10.1177/001316446002000104
13. Collaboration for Environmental Evidence. Guidelines and Standards for Evidence synthesis in Environmental Management. Version 5.0. 2018. Accessed 25 Apr 2022.
14. Dinerstein E, Olson D, Joshi A, Vynne C, Burgess ND, Wikramanayake E, Hahn N, Palminteri S, Hedao P, Noss R, Hansen M, Locke H, Ellis EC, Jones B, Barber CV, Hayes R, Kormos C, Martin V, Crist E, Sechrest W, Price L, Baillie JEM, Weeden D, Suckling K, Davis C, Sizer N, Moore R, Thau D, Birch T, Potapov P, Turubanova S, Tyukavina A, de Souza N, Pintea L, Brito JC, Llewellyn OA, Miller AG, Patzelt A, Ghazanfar SA, Timberlake J, Klöser H, Shennan-Farpón Y, Kindt R, Lillesø J-PB, van Breugel P, Graudal L, Voge M, K. F. Al-Shammari and, Saleem M. An Ecoregion-Based Approach to Protecting Half the Terrestrial Realm. BioScience. 2017;67(6): 534–545. 10.1093/biosci/bix014
15. Fiorini ACO Swisher M Putz FE Payment for environment services to promote compliance with Brazil’s forest code: the case of “produtores de água e floresta Sustainability 2020 12 19 8138 10.3390/su12198138
Fiorini ACO, Swisher M, Putz FE. Payment for Environment Services to promote compliance with Brazil’s Forest Code: the case of “Produtores de Água e Floresta. Sustainability. 2020;12(19):8138.10.3390/su12198138
16. Grimsditch M Schoenberger L New actions and existing policies: the implementation and impacts of Order 01 2015 Phnom Penh, Cambodia The NGO Forum on Cambodia, Land and Livelihoods Program
Grimsditch M, Schoenberger L. New actions and existing policies: the implementation and impacts of Order 01. Phnom Penh, Cambodia: The NGO Forum on Cambodia, Land and Livelihoods Program; 2015.
17. Haddaway NR Greylitsearcher: an R package and Shiny app for systematic and transparent searching for grey literature Zenodo 2022 10.5281/zenodo.6451616
Haddaway NR. Greylitsearcher: an R package and Shiny app for systematic and transparent searching for grey literature. Zenodo. 2022. 10.5281/zenodo.6451616.10.5281/zenodo.6451616
18. Haddaway NR Crowe S Stakeholder engagement in environmental evidence synthesis 2018 Mistra EviEM Stockholm 166
Haddaway NR, Crowe S. Stakeholder engagement in environmental evidence synthesis. Mistra EviEM: Stockholm; 2018. p. 166.
19. Haddaway NR Collins AM Coughlin D Kirk S The role of google scholar in evidence reviews and its applicability to grey literature searching PLoS ONE 2015 10 9 e0138237 10.1371/journal.pone.0138237 26379270
Haddaway NR, Collins AM, Coughlin D, Kirk S. The role of Google Scholar in evidence reviews and its applicability to Grey Literature Searching. PLoS ONE. 2015;10(9):e0138237. 10.1371/journal.pone.0138237.26379270 10.1371/journal.pone.0138237
20. Haddaway NR Bernes C Jonsson B-G Hedlund K The benefits of systematic mapping to evidence-based environmental management Ambio 2016 45 5 613 20 10.1007/s13280-016-0773-x 26984257
Haddaway NR, Bernes C, Jonsson B-G, Hedlund K. The benefits of systematic mapping to evidence-based environmental management. Ambio. 2016;45(5):613–20. 10.1007/s13280-016-0773-x.26984257 10.1007/s13280-016-0773-x
21. Haddaway NR Macura B Whaley P Pullin AS ROSES flow diagram for systematic maps Version 1 0 2017 10.6084/m9.figshare.6085940
Haddaway NR, Macura B, Whaley P, Pullin AS. ROSES flow diagram for systematic maps. Version 1 0. 2017. 10.6084/m9.figshare.6085940.10.6084/m9.figshare.6085940
22. Haddaway NR Macura B Whaley P Pullin AS ROSES RepOrting standards for systematic evidence syntheses: pro forma, flow-diagram and descriptive summary of the plan and conduct of environmental systematic reviews and systematic maps Environ Evid 2018 7 1 7 10.1186/s13750-018-0121-7
Haddaway NR, Macura B, Whaley P, Pullin AS. ROSES RepOrting standards for systematic evidence Syntheses: pro forma, flow-diagram and descriptive summary of the plan and conduct of environmental systematic reviews and systematic maps. Environ Evid. 2018;7(1):7. 10.1186/s13750-018-0121-7.10.1186/s13750-018-0121-7
23. Haddaway NR Feierman A Grainger MJ Gray CT Tanriver-Ayder E Dhaubanjar S Westgate MJ EviAtlas: a tool for visualising evidence synthesis databases Environ Evid 2019 8 1 22 10.1186/s13750-019-0167-1
Haddaway NR, Feierman A, Grainger MJ, Gray CT, Tanriver-Ayder E, Dhaubanjar S, Westgate MJ. EviAtlas: a tool for visualising evidence synthesis databases. Environ Evid. 2019;8(1):22. 10.1186/s13750-019-0167-1.10.1186/s13750-019-0167-1
24. Haddaway NR Grainger MJ Gray CT Citationchaser: a tool for transparent and efficient forward and backward citation chasing in systematic searching Res Synth Methods 2022 13 4 533 45 10.1002/jrsm.1563 35472127
Haddaway NR, Grainger MJ, Gray CT. Citationchaser: a tool for transparent and efficient forward and backward citation chasing in systematic searching. Res Synth Methods. 2022;13(4):533–45. 10.1002/jrsm.1563.35472127 10.1002/jrsm.1563
25. Harzing AW. Publish or perish. 2007. https://harzing.com/resources/publish-or-perish. Accessed 25 Jan 2023
26. Holzer J DePiper G Intertemporal quota arbitrage in multispecies fisheries J Environ Econ Manag 2019 93 185 207 10.1016/j.jeem.2018.12.002
Holzer J, DePiper G. Intertemporal quota arbitrage in multispecies fisheries. J Environ Econ Manag. 2019;93:185–207. 10.1016/j.jeem.2018.12.002.10.1016/j.jeem.2018.12.002
27. Hyun D Milcheva S Spatio-temporal effects of an urban development announcement and its cancellation on house prices: a quasi-natural experiment J Hous Econ 2019 43 23 36 10.1016/j.jhe.2018.09.008
Hyun D, Milcheva S. Spatio-temporal effects of an urban development announcement and its cancellation on house prices: a quasi-natural experiment. J Hous Econ. 2019;43:23–36. 10.1016/j.jhe.2018.09.008.10.1016/j.jhe.2018.09.008
28. James KL Randall NP Haddaway NR A methodology for systematic mapping in environmental sciences Environ Evid 2016 5 1 7 10.1186/s13750-016-0059-6
James KL, Randall NP, Haddaway NR. A methodology for systematic mapping in environmental sciences. Environ Evid. 2016;5(1):7. 10.1186/s13750-016-0059-6.10.1186/s13750-016-0059-6
29. Jensen S Mohlin K Pittel K Sterner T An introduction to the green paradox: the unintended consequences of climate policies Rev Environ Econ Policy 2015 9 2 246 65 10.1093/reep/rev010
Jensen S, Mohlin K, Pittel K, Sterner T. An introduction to the Green Paradox: the Unintended Consequences of Climate policies. Rev Environ Econ Policy. 2015;9(2):246–65. 10.1093/reep/rev010.10.1093/reep/rev010
30. Keller E Beyond the lens of conservation. malagasy and swiss imaginations of one another 2015 New York and Oxford Berghahn Books 244
Keller E. Beyond the Lens of Conservation. Malagasy and swiss imaginations of one another. New York and Oxford: Berghahn Books; 2015. p. 244.
31. Kohl C McIntosh EJ Unger S Haddaway NR Kecke S Schiemann J Wilhelm R Online tools supporting the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews and systematic maps: a case study on CADIMA and review of existing tools Environ Evid 2018 7 8 1 17 10.1186/s13750-018-0115-5
Kohl C, McIntosh EJ, Unger S, Haddaway NR, Kecke S, Schiemann J, Wilhelm R. Online tools supporting the conduct and reporting of systematic reviews and systematic maps: a case study on CADIMA and review of existing tools. Environ Evid. 2018;7(8):1–17. 10.1186/s13750-018-0115-5.10.1186/s13750-018-0115-5
32. List JA Margolis M Osgood DE Is the endangered species act endangering species? working paper series 12777 2006 Cambridge National Bureau of Economic Research
List JA, Margolis M, Osgood DE. Is the endangered species act endangering species? working paper series 12777. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research; 2006.
33. Llopis JC Harimalala PC Bär R Heinimann A Rabemananjara ZH Zaehringer JG Effects of protected area establishment and cash crop price dynamics on land use transitions 1990–2017 in north-eastern Madagascar J Land Use Sci 2019 14 1 52 80 10.1080/1747423X.2019.1625979
Llopis JC, Harimalala PC, Bär R, Heinimann A, Rabemananjara ZH, Zaehringer JG. Effects of protected area establishment and cash crop price dynamics on land use transitions 1990–2017 in north-eastern Madagascar. J Land Use Sci. 2019;14(1):52–80. 10.1080/1747423X.2019.1625979.10.1080/1747423X.2019.1625979
34. Lott CA Akresh ME Elmore AJ Fiss CJ Fitzpatrick MC Joos CJ King DI McNeil DJ Stoleson SH Larkin JL What evidence exists for landbird species-environment relationships in eastern temperate and boreal forests of North America? a systematic map protocol Environ Evid 2019 8 1 31 10.1186/s13750-019-0170-6
Lott CA, Akresh ME, Elmore AJ, Fiss CJ, Fitzpatrick MC, Joos CJ, King DI, McNeil DJ, Stoleson SH, Larkin JL. What evidence exists for landbird species-environment relationships in eastern temperate and boreal forests of North America? A systematic map protocol. Environ Evid. 2019;8(1):31. 10.1186/s13750-019-0170-6.10.1186/s13750-019-0170-6
35. Lueck D Jeffrey AM Preemptive habitat destruction under the endangered species act J Law Econ 2003 46 1 27 60 10.1086/344670
Lueck D, Jeffrey AM. Preemptive Habitat Destruction under the endangered Species Act. J Law Econ. 2003;46(1):27–60. 10.1086/344670.10.1086/344670
36. Martín-Martín A Orduna-Malea E Thelwall M Delgado López-Cózar E Google scholar, web of science, and scopus: a systematic comparison of citations in 252 subject categories J Informetrics 2018 12 4 1160 77 10.1016/j.joi.2018.09.002
Martín-Martín A, Orduna-Malea E, Thelwall M, Delgado López-Cózar E. Google Scholar, web of Science, and Scopus: a systematic comparison of citations in 252 subject categories. J Informetrics. 2018;12(4):1160–77. 10.1016/j.joi.2018.09.002.10.1016/j.joi.2018.09.002
37. McDermott GR, Meng KC, McDonald GG, Costello CJ. The blue paradox: Preemptive overfishing in marine reserves. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2018;116(12): 5319–5325. 10.1073/pnas.1802862115
38. Mialon HM Klumpp T Williams MA International trade and the survival of mammalian and reptilian species Sci Adv 2022 8 1 eabh3442 10.1126/sciadv.abh3442 34995106
Mialon HM, Klumpp T, Williams MA. International trade and the survival of mammalian and reptilian species. Sci Adv. 2022;8(1):eabh3442. 10.1126/sciadv.abh3442.34995106 10.1126/sciadv.abh3442
39. Middleton K Evers S Campbell G Lambek M Land rights and alien plants in dryland madagascar Contest for land in madagascar 2013 Leiden Brill 141 170
Middleton K. Land rights and alien plants in dryland madagascar. In: Evers S, Campbell G, Lambek M, editors. Contest for land in madagascar. Leiden: Brill; 2013. p. 141–70.
40. Milne S Under the leopard’s skin: land commodification and the dilemmas of indigenous communal title in upland cambodia Asia Pac Viewp 2013 54 3 323 39 10.1111/apv.12027
Milne S. Under the leopard’s skin: Land commodification and the dilemmas of indigenous communal title in upland Cambodia. Asia Pac Viewp. 2013;54(3):323–39. 10.1111/apv.12027.10.1111/apv.12027
41. O’Leary BC Woodcock P Kaiser MJ Pullin AS Evidence maps and evidence gaps: evidence review mapping as a method for collating and appraising evidence reviews to inform research and policy Environ Evid 2017 6 1 19 10.1186/s13750-017-0096-9
O’Leary BC, Woodcock P, Kaiser MJ, Pullin AS. Evidence maps and evidence gaps: evidence review mapping as a method for collating and appraising evidence reviews to inform research and policy. Environ Evid. 2017;6(1):19. 10.1186/s13750-017-0096-9.10.1186/s13750-017-0096-9
42. Ouzzani M Hammady H Fedorowicz Z Elmagarmid A Rayyan — a web and mobile app for systematic reviews Syst Reviews 2016 5 1 210 10.1186/s13643-016-0384-4
Ouzzani M, Hammady H, Fedorowicz Z, Elmagarmid A. Rayyan — a web and mobile app for systematic reviews. Syst Reviews. 2016;5(1):210. 10.1186/s13643-016-0384-4.10.1186/s13643-016-0384-4
43. Pfaff A Robalino J Spillovers from conservation programs Annual Rev Resource Econ 2017 9 1 299 315 10.1146/annurev-resource-100516-053543
Pfaff A, Robalino J. Spillovers from Conservation Programs. Annual Rev Resource Econ. 2017;9(1):299–315. 10.1146/annurev-resource-100516-053543.10.1146/annurev-resource-100516-053543
44. Reside AE Beher J Cosgrove AJ Evans MC Seabrook L Silcock JL Wenger AS Maron M Ecological consequences of land clearing and policy reform in queensland Pac Conserv Biology 2017 23 3 219 30 10.1071/PC17001
Reside AE, Beher J, Cosgrove AJ, Evans MC, Seabrook L, Silcock JL, Wenger AS, Maron M. Ecological consequences of land clearing and policy reform in Queensland. Pac Conserv Biology. 2017;23(3):219–30. 10.1071/PC17001.10.1071/PC17001
45. Rivalan P Delmas V Angulo E Bull LS Hall RJ Courchamp F Rosser AM Leader-Williams N Can bans stimulate wildlife trade? Nature 2007 447 7144 529 30 10.1038/447529a 17538599
Rivalan P, Delmas V, Angulo E, Bull LS, Hall RJ, Courchamp F, Rosser AM, Leader-Williams N. Can bans stimulate wildlife trade? Nature. 2007;447(7144):529–30. 10.1038/447529a.17538599 10.1038/447529a
46. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity.  Incentive Measures for the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biological Diversity: Case Studies and Lessons Learned. CBD Technical Series No.56. 2011. pp. 65
47. Seghezzo L Volante JN Paruelo JM Somma DJ Buliubasich EC Rodríguez HE Gagnon S Hufty M Native forests and agriculture in Salta (Argentina): conflicting visions of development J Environ Dev 2011 20 3 251 77 10.1177/1070496511416915
Seghezzo L, Volante JN, Paruelo JM, Somma DJ, Buliubasich EC, Rodríguez HE, Gagnon S, Hufty M. Native forests and agriculture in Salta (Argentina): conflicting visions of development. J Environ Dev. 2011;20(3):251–77. 10.1177/1070496511416915.10.1177/1070496511416915
48. Simmons BA Law EA Marcos-Martinez R Bryan BA McAlpine C Wilson KA Spatial and temporal patterns of land clearing during policy change Land Use Policy 2018 75 399 410 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.03.049
Simmons BA, Law EA, Marcos-Martinez R, Bryan BA, McAlpine C, Wilson KA. Spatial and temporal patterns of land clearing during policy change. Land Use Policy. 2018;75:399–410. 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.03.049.10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.03.049
49. Sinn H-W The green paradox: a supply-side approach to global warming 2012 Cambridge, Massachusetts, and London, England The MIT Press 269
Sinn H-W. The Green Paradox: a Supply-Side Approach to global warming. Cambridge, Massachusetts, and London, England: The MIT Press; 2012. p. 269.
50. Stroup RL. The Endangered Species Act: making innocent species the enemy. PERC Policy Series. 1995.
51. Tomich TP, Van Noordwijk M. What drives deforestation in Sumatra? Paper presented at the Regional Symposium on “Montane Mainland Southeast Asia in Transition” Chiang Mai, Thailand, 13–16 November 1995. Chiang Mai, Thailand. 1995.
52. UKCOP26. Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use. 2021. https://ukcop26.org/glasgow-leaders-declaration-on-forests-and-land-use/. Accessed 29 Dec 2021
53. van der Werf E Di Maria C Imperfect environmental policy and polluting emissions: the green paradox and beyond Int Rev Environ Resour Econ 2012 6 2 153 94 10.1561/101.00000050
van der Werf E, Di Maria C. Imperfect environmental policy and polluting emissions: the green paradox and beyond. Int Rev Environ Resour Econ. 2012;6(2):153–94. 10.1561/101.00000050.10.1561/101.00000050
54. Watson JEM Evans T Venter O Williams B Tulloch A Stewart C Thompson I Ray JC Murray K Salazar A McAlpine C Potapov P Walston J Robinson JG Painter M Wilkie D Filardi C Laurance WF Houghton RA Maxwell S Grantham H Samper C Wang S Laestadius L Runting RK Silva-Chávez GA Ervin J Lindenmayer D The exceptional value of intact forest ecosystems Nat Ecol Evol 2018 2 4 599 610 10.1038/s41559-018-0490-x 29483681
Watson JEM, Evans T, Venter O, Williams B, Tulloch A, Stewart C, Thompson I, Ray JC, Murray K, Salazar A, McAlpine C, Potapov P, Walston J, Robinson JG, Painter M, Wilkie D, Filardi C, Laurance WF, Houghton RA, Maxwell S, Grantham H, Samper C, Wang S, Laestadius L, Runting RK, Silva-Chávez GA, Ervin J, Lindenmayer D. The exceptional value of intact forest ecosystems. Nat Ecol Evol. 2018;2(4):599–610. 10.1038/s41559-018-0490-x.29483681 10.1038/s41559-018-0490-x
55. World Bank. World Bank Country and Lending Groups. 2023.  https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups. Accessed 4 Jan 2023
56. Wren-Lewis L Becerra-Valbuena L Houngbedji K Formalizing land rights can reduce forest loss: experimental evidence from Benin Sci Adv 2020 6 26 eabb6914 10.1126/sciadv.abb6914 32637624
Wren-Lewis L, Becerra-Valbuena L, Houngbedji K. Formalizing land rights can reduce forest loss: experimental evidence from Benin. Sci Adv. 2020;6(26):eabb6914. 10.1126/sciadv.abb6914.32637624 10.1126/sciadv.abb6914
57. Zhang D Endangered species and timber harvesting: the case of red-cockaded woodpeckers Econ Inq 2004 42 150 65 10.1093/ei/cbh051
Zhang D. Endangered species and timber harvesting: the case of red-cockaded woodpeckers. Econ Inq. 2004;42:150–65.10.1093/ei/cbh051
